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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 14 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 14 Oct 93 21:18:48 MDT
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                14 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 14 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 287, 10/14/93
10.7 FLUX=091.3  90-AVG=096        SSN=029      BKI=3221 2210  BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=B1.2     FLU1=4.3E+05  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=3222 2221  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=033,015,012,008,015,025,006,003   DEV-AVG=014 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B5.2   @ 0834UT    XRAY-MIN= A8.8   @ 2359UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.8
NEUTN-MAX= +005%  @ 0825UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 2330UT  NEUTN-AVG= +1.8%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1705UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55363NT @ 2305UT   BOUTF-MIN=55323NT @ 1758UT  BOUTF-AVG=55353NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+063,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+105NT@ 1818UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-065NT@ 1357UT  G6-AVG=+085,+018,-042
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,085;SESC:090,090,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=1114 3011 1005 4011  27DAY-AP=006,005   27DAY-KP=1231 2211 2223 1111
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=1@0644-0648UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 13 OCT 93 was  45.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 13 OCT 93 are: 3o 4o 4o 3-   2o 2o 2- 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. There were no significant
       flares this period. A long duration (6 hours 27 minutes) B9
       xray burst occurred at the end of last period. It reached
       maximum at 13/1754UT and ended at 13/2159UT. Evidence suggests
       a possible coronal mass ejection from Region 7592 (S15,L183),
       now a full day beyond the west limb.

       STD: The National Solar Observatory reported additional
       moderate Ca XV emissions on the southwest limb from departed
       Region 7592.  A weak Type II sweep was reported at 13/0644UT.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Region 7597 (S21W07) has the best C-class
       flare potential.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly quiet for the next 24 hours, then quiet
       to unsettled.

            Event probabilities 15 oct-17 oct

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 15 oct-17 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/15/25
                        Minor Storm           05/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/20/35
                        Minor Storm           10/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions,
       including most high and polar latitude paths.  Normal
       propagation is expected to persist over the next 72 hours,
       through 17 October inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7597  S21W07  082  0180 EAO  12  006 BETA
7600  N14E30  045  0020 HSX  02  003 ALPHA
7596  N04W59  134                    PLAGE
7598  S11W12  087                    PLAGE
7599  S12W36  111                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 15 OCTOBER TO 17 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7585 S07   342
7589 N18   336


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 14 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0644      0648                                     II



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 14 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
14/ 0644              0648                RSP               1


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
13 Oct: 0104  0108  0110  B2.9                                         
        0742  0755  0802  B7.6                                         
        1222  1318  1348  B7.1  SF  7597  S21E15                       
        1532  1754  2159  B9.4                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7597:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (25.0)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    003  (75.0)

 Total Events: 004 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.

SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT
===========================================================================

                      13 October 1993, 22:10 UTC

                                    North
           .....,,,,,:::,,,.
        ....,,,,,::::::;;;;;;:.....                     .....                  
     ....,,,,,,,,,,:::;;;:::,,,......           .   ...,,,,........            
    .....,:::,:::::::::,,,,,,,,,..............,,..,,,,,,,,:::,,,,,....         
 .......,,:::::::::,,,,,,,,.,.......,,..........,,,,,,,,,,,,,::::,,,....       
 ...,,,,::;;;;;;::,,,,,,,.........,,....................,.,,,,,::::,,,,.    .  
..,,,:::;;;---;;;::,:,,,,,,,...........................,..,.,,,,,::::,,........
.,,::;;;--++-;;;;;;:::,,,,,,,,,,,.,,....................,,,,,,,,,::;;::,,,.....
,::;;--+|!1+--;;;-----;::,,,....,,,,,,....,,...........,,,,,,,,,:::::;:::,,.,..
,:;--++|!1|---;;;;-----;::,,,....,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,....,,,,,,,,:::::::;;;::,,,,,
:;--+||!!|+--|++++-;;;;;;;::,,,,....,,.,,,..,,::,,,,,,,,,,,,::::::::::;--;:::,,
:;--+|!!!|+-|!244|+-;;:::::::,,,,.........,,,,,::;;,.,,,,,:::::::::;;;;||-;::::
;;--+|||||+++1242---;;::::,,,,,,.........,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,::::;;:::;;;;;|++-;::
:;--++||+++---+|+;;;:::::,,,.....,,..,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:;---:::;;;;-+--;;;
:;-++|||+++--------;;;:::,,,..........,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:::;-;;;;;;;-++---;
;;-+|!1|+-;;-------;;;;::::,,........,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:::,,,::::;;-;;;----+||||++
;--+|!21+-----;;-----;;;:::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,::;;;:::::::::;;---++++|!11!||
:--+|!11|+1|+--;;;;;;;;;::::::;;;::,:::;::,::::,:;:::::;;::::::;;;-!|+|!4**4332
:;;-++|!||||++--;;;;;;---;;-------;;|!+-;;;;;:::::::::;:::::::;;;-+|||!*@#****4
,:;--+++++|++-;;;;:;-+++++|+++-----+24*1|-;::,::::;;-::::::;;;;;--+++|1@@##@@#4
,::;;--++++++-;;;;;;-+++++|||||+++!3441!+;:,,,,,,,,,,,:,:::::::;;--++|3*@@@@@*3
..,::;--++++++-;;-;;----+++++++++2#@*2+-+-;::,,...........,,,::::;;-|124#@#*42!
 ..,,::;;--+--;;;;;:;;;;-------|24#421+---;;:::::,,,,,,,::,:::;;;;;-!2244332!|+
   ..,,,::;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;-|111!|+-;;;:;:::::::::::::::::;;;;;---+++|||++--
     ....,,,:::;;;;;;;::::::;;;;;--;;;::::::::;:;::::::::::;;;;;-------;-;-;;;;
        ....,,,,::::,,,,,,:::::::::;:::::::::::;::::::::::::;;---;;;;;;;;;;;:::
           .....,,,,,,,,,,,,,:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::;-----;;;;;;;::::::::
                  ..,,:::,::::::::::::::::::::::::::::;;-------;;;;;::::::,,,,,
                     ..,,,:::::;;;;;:::::::;;;;;;;:;;;;;----;;;;;;::::,,,,,,...
                       ...,,,::::;;;;;;;::::;;;;:::::::::::::::::::,,,,........
                         ...,,,,,,::::::::::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.....      
                           ......,,,,,,,,...,.,,,,,,.................          
                                . .......... ..........                        

                                    South

KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission
     strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way:

     [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @

     Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes.  Get "showasc.zip"
     from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: xi.uleth.ca
     (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens.


**  End of Daily Report  **


