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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9310152012.AA02177@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar & Geophysical Activity for 13 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 15 Oct 93 14:11:56 MDT
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Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                13 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 13 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 286, 10/13/93
10.7 FLUX=095.0  90-AVG=096        SSN=035      BKI=2442 2220  BAI=011
BGND-XRAY=B1.9     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=3443 2222  PAI=013
  BOU-DEV=018,048,054,016,015,019,015,003   DEV-AVG=023 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B9.4   @ 1752UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.0   @ 0708UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.7
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 2150UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 0830UT  NEUTN-AVG= +1.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1700UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2010UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55363NT @ 0554UT   BOUTF-MIN=55335NT @ 1734UT  BOUTF-AVG=55353NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+065,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+109NT@ 1737UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-065NT@ 1207UT  G6-AVG=+088,+017,-041
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,090,090;SESC:095,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,010/012,015,012
    KFCST=1114 3111 1114 3011  27DAY-AP=007,006   27DAY-KP=2222 3221 1231 2211
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**245STRM:1859-2228UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 12 OCT 93 was  40.1.
      The Full Kp Indices for 12 OCT 93 are: 4- 4- 4- 3o   3- 3o 2- 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7597 (S21E08) was
       responsible for a single C1/SF flare at the beginning of the
       period (12/2114UT). This region also produced a long duration
       B7/SF flare at 13/1318UT.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Region 7597 has the best C-class flare
       potential.

       STD: Moderate Ca XV emissions have been observed with the
       passage of Region 7592 beyond the west limb.  An optically
       uncorrelated, but very long decay (387 minute duration) class
       B9.4 x-ray event was observed at 13/1754UT.  X-rays were still
       decaying toward background levels at the time of this writing.
       The signature is consistent with a limb event, and hence
       probably originated from the west limb.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly quiet for the entire forecast period.

            Event probabilities 14 oct-16 oct

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 14 oct-16 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were below-normal over the high
       and polar latitude paths until about 18:00 UTC.  Conditions
       since then have been near-normal to slightly below-normal over
       these regions.  Middle and low latitude paths saw normal
       propagation throughout the period.  Similar near-normal
       conditions are expected over the middle and low latitude
       regions.  There is a chance high and polar latitude paths could
       see additional periods of minor signal degradation over the
       next 72 hours, with a possible maximum in minor signal
       instability occuring on or near 15 October in response to a
       well-placed positive-polarity southern-hemisphere coronal hole.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7597  S21E08  080  0210 EAO  12  013 BETA
7600  N13E43  045  0020 HSX  01  002 ALPHA
7596  N04W46  134                    PLAGE
7598  S11E01  087                    PLAGE
7599  S12W23  111                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 14 OCTOBER TO 16 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7585 S07   342
7589 N18   336


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 13 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
NO DATA PRESENTLY AVAILABLE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 13 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
13/ 1222     1318     1348       S21E15   LDE    B7.1   86
13/ 1532     1754     2159                LDE    B9.4  387


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
38   N60W53 N43W90 N50W90 N60W73  168  EXT   POS   011 10830A
39   S20W11 S25W18 S20W53 S17W13  121  ISO   POS   002 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
12 Oct: 0109  0112  0114  B4.8                                         
        1122  1126  1137  B3.1                                         
        1402  1405  1412  B2.6                                         
        1916  1920  1927  B3.6                                         
        2032  2114  2253  C1.5  SF  7597  S21E23                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7597:  1   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (20.0)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    004  (80.0)

 Total Events: 005 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT
===========================================================================

                      12 October 1993, 23:40 UTC

                                    North
             ......,,,,,,,,..
          .......,,,,::::::::,,,..                                             
        ........,,,,:::::::,,......                    ..........              
   . ......,,,,,,,::::,,,,........... .....................,,,,,,...           
 ......,,,,,,,,:::,,,,............................,,,,,,,,...,::,,,.. .        
....,,,,,,::::::,,,,..,..................................,,,...,:,,,,.....     
.,,,,,::::;;--;:,::,,,,.......... ...........................,...,::::,,,..    
,,:::;;;-----;;:::,,,..,,........   ................,..........,,,,;;:::,,.... 
,::;;;---++;;;;;;;:,,,....,.........................,,...,,,,,,,,,,::;;:;::....
:;;---++++-;;;;;;;;:,,......,..,......,,,,,............,,,,,,,,,,,:::;|!|+;,,..
;;-+|||||++||-;:;::::,,,,.....,.....,,,,,,,,.....,,....,,,,,,,,,,,,:::;||+-;;,,
;-++|||||!233+-;::::,,,.,,........,.,,,...,,..,...,..,,,,,,,,:,,::::::;-||+-;;:
;-++|||||!22!;;;:::,,,,.,.........,,,,,......,,...,,,:,:::,,,,,:::::::;;|+-;;;;
:;-++|||+---;;::,,,,,............,,,,,,,,,.....,......,;---,,,,,::::::::-+-;;::
;--++||+----;::::::,,..........,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,......,,,,,;-;,,:,::::::::;--;;::
;-++|||+---;;;;;::::,............,,,,:,,,.,,,,,....,,,,:::+-:::::::::;;;-+++--;
;--++||+------;;;:,:,,,,.,..,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,::::,,,::,,,,,,;-;:;;;;;;;;;-+++++--
:;-++|||++---;;;::::,::::::,,:;:;:,::::,::,,,::::;;::::::::::;++---;;;-|111||+;
:;--++||++-;;;;;----------;;;!!+-;;:::::::,,:::;;;::::::::::;-++-----+!**32!|-;
:;;--+||++-;;;--++++|+---;;-|1331+;:,,,::,,:;-,::::::::::::;;--;;;--+!3@#31||+-
,:;;--++++-;;;--++|++++||++!3321|-;:,,,,,,,,,. ..,,,,:::::::;;;;;;;-+!2321!|++-
.,::;;---++---;---++++++++!*@*3!+-;::,,,..         ..,,,,,,,,,::::;;+!11!!|+--;
..,,::;;;----;;;;;;------|2341||+-;;:::,,,..........,,,,,,,,:::::::-|!!!!|+-;;;
 ...,,:::::;;--;;-;;;;;;-+!!!|+-;;::::::::,,,,,::,,,,,,,::::::::::;--++++--;:::
   .....,,,,::;;;::::::;;;;--;;::::::::::::::,:::::,,,,::::::::;;;;;;;;;;;::::,
      ......,,,,:::,:,::::::;::::::::::::::::,:,,::,::,::::::;;-;;;:::::;:::::,
            .....,,,:::::::::::::::::::::,,:,,,,::::,:::::;;;;;;;:::::::::,,,,,
                ...,,:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::;;;--;;;;:::::::,,,,,,,..
                  ...,,,,:::::::::::::::::::::::::::;;;;;;;;;;:::::,,,,,.......
                    ....,,,,,::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::,,,,,....     
                        ....,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.....       
                        ........,.,.,,............................             
                                .  ..   .        .                             

                                    South

KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission
     strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way:

     [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @

     Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes.  Get "showasc.zip"
     from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: xi.uleth.ca
     (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens.


**  End of Daily Report  **


