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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 12 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 12 Oct 93 22:09:37 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                12 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 12 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 285, 10/12/93
10.7 FLUX=097.8  90-AVG=096        SSN=064      BKI=4433 3221  BAI=014
BGND-XRAY=B1.6     FLU1=3.6E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=4443 3322  PAI=015
  BOU-DEV=050,042,033,028,033,017,013,005   DEV-AVG=027 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.5   @ 2115UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.2   @ 0703UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.5
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2020UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2300UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1445UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 1755UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55367NT @ 0357UT   BOUTF-MIN=55337NT @ 1748UT  BOUTF-AVG=55353NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+069,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+116NT@ 1739UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-065NT@ 1319UT  G6-AVG=+090,+017,-042
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,090;SESC:095,095,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,005,005/010,012,015
    KFCST=2114 4111 1114 3111  27DAY-AP=017,007   27DAY-KP=4543 3223 2222 3221
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0000-0043UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 11 OCT 93 was  41.4.
      The Full Kp Indices for 11 OCT 93 are: 4o 4- 4- 4+   4- 4o 2+ 4- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7597 (S20E21) produced a
       C1/1F flare at the end of the period (12/2046UT). This region
       also produced minor subflaring this period.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Region 7597 has the best chance of C-class
       production.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels
       for the past 24 hours. High latitudes saw minor storm levels
       between 12/0900 and 12/1500UT. Activity was most likely due
       to a coronal hole now rotating off the disk.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the entire forecast
       period.

            Event probabilities 13 oct-15 oct

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 13 oct-15 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/10/05
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/15/15
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal to slightly
       below-normal over the middle latitude paths.  Low latitude
       regions saw normal propagation.  High and polar latitude
       propagation conditions varied from near-normal (predominantly
       during the day), to near useless (over night-sector paths)
       during geomagnetic residual substorm activity.  Conditions are
       gradually recovering over the higher latitude regions and will
       continue to do so over the 24 to 48 hours.  Essentially normal
       propagation should prevail on 13 October, although conditions
       could continue to be sporadically unstable on night-sector
       high-latitude paths.  A small positive-polarity coronal hole
       may begin to increase signal instabilities over the high and
       polar latitude paths on 15 October.  Aside from this, nothing
       significant is expected.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7592  S15W82  183  0130 DAO  10  003 BETA
7597  S20E21  080  0300 EAO  11  018 BETA
7599  S12W10  111  0000 BXO  04  002 BETA
7600  N14E57  044  0050 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7596  N04W33  134                    PLAGE
7598  S11E18  083                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 13 OCTOBER TO 15 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7585 S07   342
7589 N18   336


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 12 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
NO DATA PRESENTLY AVAILABLE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 12 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
NO DATA PRESENTLY AVAILABLE


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
11 Oct: 0855  0906  0918  C1.2                                         
        1724  1727  1729  B5.0  SF  7597  S23E40                       
        2152  2152  2157        SF  7597  S24E37                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7597:  0   0   0     2   0   0   0   0    002  (66.7)
Uncorrellated:  1   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    001  (33.3)

 Total Events: 003 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


