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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9310120503.AA10833@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 11 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 11 Oct 93 23:03:23 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 1059
Status: RO

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                11 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 11 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 284, 10/11/93
10.7 FLUX=102.7  90-AVG=096        SSN=083      BKI=4344 3424  BAI=021
BGND-XRAY=B2.2     FLU1=3.8E+06  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=4444 4424  PAI=022
  BOU-DEV=044,032,049,050,031,044,017,042   DEV-AVG=038 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.2   @ 0906UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.2   @ 0700UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.8
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2015UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1845UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1515UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1725UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55368NT @ 2333UT   BOUTF-MIN=55331NT @ 1553UT  BOUTF-AVG=55353NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+063,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+109NT@ 2023UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-071NT@ 1232UT  G6-AVG=+086,+018,-045
 FLUXFCST=STD:100,100,095;SESC:100,100,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,005,005/015,010,010
    KFCST=3343 2221 1223 2221  27DAY-AP=031,017   27DAY-KP=5455 3333 4543 3223
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 10 OCT 93 was  40.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 10 OCT 93 are: 4+ 4+ 4- 5-   4+ 3- 3o 4- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Two optically uncorrelated
       C-class x-ray bursts occurred. Minor decay was noted in Region
       7592 (S15W69). The remaining regions were stable. New Regions
       7599 (S12E03) and 7600 (N14E69) were numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels
       for the past 24 hours. Minor to major storm levels occurred
       at high latitudes from approximately 11/0900-1700Z. This
       disturbance was probably due to coronal hole effects.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Brief periods of
       active to minor storm levels are possible on the first day,
       especially at high latitudes.

            Event probabilities 12 oct-14 oct

                             Class M    10/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 12 oct-14 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/01/01
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/10/10
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

            HF propagation conditions continued slightly below normal
       for the middle latitude regions and were near-normal for the
       low latitude paths.  High and polar latitude regions were below
       normal with periods of useless propagation reported for
       numerous transauroral night-sector paths.  Enhanced activity
       related to a well-placed coronal hole was responsible for this
       disturbed activity.  Low and middle latitude paths are expected
       to see gradual improvements, with near-normal propagation over
       the next 3 days.  High and polar latitude paths should return
       to near-normal over the next two days (by approximately 13
       October).


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7592  S15W69  183  0310 EAO  11  014 BETA
7597  S20E34  080  0360 EAO  11  014 BETA
7598  S11E31  083  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7599  S12E03  111  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7600  N14E69  045  0070 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7596  N04W20  134                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 12 OCTOBER TO 14 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 11 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1831 1831 1832                          120



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 11 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
38   N58W32 S03W72 N41W90 N60W72  183  EXT   POS   051 10830A
39   S20E13 S28E05 S21W10 S15E08  116  ISO   POS   003 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
10 Oct: 0024  0028  0032  B6.7  SF  7592  S15W45                       
        0114  0119  0124  B6.4                                         
        0414  0418  0423  B7.7  SF  7592  S16W46                       
        1412  1423  1437  C1.1                                         
        1519  1523  1528  B7.8                                         
        2324  2334  2349  C1.0                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7592:  0   0   0     2   0   0   0   0    002  (33.3)
Uncorrellated:  2   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    004  (66.7)

 Total Events: 006 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
10 Oct: 0414  0418  0423  B7.7  SF  7592  S16W46   III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Wed Oct 13 02:52:50 1993
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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9310130044.AA16811@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar & Geophysical Activity for 11 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 12 Oct 93 18:44:27 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 1061
Status: RO

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                11 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 11 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 284, 10/11/93
10.7 FLUX=102.7  90-AVG=096        SSN=083      BKI=4344 3424  BAI=021
BGND-XRAY=B2.2     FLU1=3.8E+06  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=4444 4424  PAI=022
  BOU-DEV=044,032,049,050,031,044,017,042   DEV-AVG=038 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.2   @ 0906UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.2   @ 0700UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.8
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2015UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1845UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1515UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1725UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55368NT @ 2333UT   BOUTF-MIN=55331NT @ 1553UT  BOUTF-AVG=55353NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+063,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+109NT@ 2023UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-071NT@ 1232UT  G6-AVG=+086,+018,-045
 FLUXFCST=STD:100,100,095;SESC:100,100,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,005,005/015,010,010
    KFCST=3343 2221 1223 2221  27DAY-AP=031,017   27DAY-KP=5455 3333 4543 3223
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 10 OCT 93 was  40.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 10 OCT 93 are: 4+ 4+ 4- 5-   4+ 3- 3o 4- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Two optically uncorrelated
       C-class x-ray bursts occurred. Minor decay was noted in Region
       7592 (S15W69). The remaining regions were stable. New Regions
       7599 (S12E03) and 7600 (N14E69) were numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels
       for the past 24 hours. Minor to major storm levels occurred
       at high latitudes from approximately 11/0900-1700Z. This
       disturbance was probably due to coronal hole effects.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Brief periods of
       active to minor storm levels are possible on the first day,
       especially at high latitudes.

            Event probabilities 12 oct-14 oct

                             Class M    10/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 12 oct-14 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/01/01
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/10/10
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

            HF propagation conditions continued slightly below normal
       for the middle latitude regions and were near-normal for the
       low latitude paths.  High and polar latitude regions were below
       normal with periods of useless propagation reported for
       numerous transauroral night-sector paths.  Enhanced activity
       related to a well-placed coronal hole was responsible for this
       disturbed activity.  Low and middle latitude paths are expected
       to see gradual improvements, with near-normal propagation over
       the next 3 days.  High and polar latitude paths should return
       to near-normal over the next two days (by approximately 13
       October).


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7592  S15W69  183  0310 EAO  11  014 BETA
7597  S20E34  080  0360 EAO  11  014 BETA
7598  S11E31  083  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7599  S12E03  111  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7600  N14E69  045  0070 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7596  N04W20  134                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 12 OCTOBER TO 14 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 11 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1831 1831 1832                          120



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 11 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
38   N58W32 S03W72 N41W90 N60W72  183  EXT   POS   051 10830A
39   S20E13 S28E05 S21W10 S15E08  116  ISO   POS   003 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
10 Oct: 0024  0028  0032  B6.7  SF  7592  S15W45                       
        0114  0119  0124  B6.4                                         
        0414  0418  0423  B7.7  SF  7592  S16W46                       
        1412  1423  1437  C1.1                                         
        1519  1523  1528  B7.8                                         
        2324  2334  2349  C1.0                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7592:  0   0   0     2   0   0   0   0    002  (33.3)
Uncorrellated:  2   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    004  (66.7)

 Total Events: 006 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
10 Oct: 0414  0418  0423  B7.7  SF  7592  S16W46   III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


