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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar & Geophysical Activity for 10 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 93 10:57:40 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                10 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 10 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 283, 10/10/93
10.7 FLUX=107    90-AVG=096        SSN=069      BKI=5434 4233  BAI=022
BGND-XRAY=B2.9     FLU1=8.2E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=4445 4334  PAI=025
  BOU-DEV=073,054,038,050,046,019,023,027   DEV-AVG=041 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.1   @ 1423UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.6   @ 0657UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.0
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1020UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 0710UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1645UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1355UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55373NT @ 0136UT   BOUTF-MIN=55335NT @ 1822UT  BOUTF-AVG=55354NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+064,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+117NT@ 1556UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-074NT@ 1251UT  G6-AVG=+084,+019,-046
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,100,100;SESC:105,100,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,012,010/020,012,010
    KFCST=3445 4322 3343 2222  27DAY-AP=082,031   27DAY-KP=5887 5434 5455 3333
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**MINSTRM
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 09 OCT 93 was  43.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 09 OCT 93 are: 2o 4+ 6o 7-   5- 3o 3o 4+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Two optically uncorrelated
       C-class x-ray bursts occurred. Minor growth was reported in the
       trailer portion of Region 7592 (S15W55) which produced two
       B-class subflares. The remaining regions were stable.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active
       levels for the past 24 hours. Minor to major storming occurred
       at some high latitude stations between 10/0900-1500Z. This
       activity was probably due to coronal hole effects.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be generally active during the first day. The
       field is expected to decline to unsettled levels for the rest
       of the period.

            Event probabilities 11 oct-13 oct

                             Class M    10/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 11 oct-13 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/20/15
                        Minor Storm           20/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    20/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/20/15
                        Minor Storm           25/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    25/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal well below
       normal today over the high and polar latitude paths.
       Conditions, at times, were nearly useless during strong
       geomagnetic and auroral substorm activity.  Middle and low
       latitude paths were near-normal with higher than normal levels
       of fading during the local night sectors.  Conditions are
       expected to improve to near-normal over all regions during the
       next 48 to 72 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7592  S15W55  183  0340 EAO  14  020 BETA
7597  S21E46  082  0330 EAO  11  014 BETA
7598  S11E44  084  0010 BXO  06  005 BETA
7596  N04W07  135                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 11 OCTOBER TO 13 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 10 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0759 0759 0800                          120
 1503 1505 1506                          100



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 10 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
38   N50W41 S10W71 N15W83 N56W83  193  EXT   POS   039 10830A
39   S25E20 S28E18 S26E02 S10E17  118  ISO   POS   004 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
09 Oct: 0010  0014  0022  C1.5  SF  7592  S17W30                       
        0521  0526  0533  B9.6                                         
        0640  0643  0645  B5.8  SF  7592  S17W35                       
        0820  0821  0823        SF  7590  N10W78                       
        1042  1049  1057  C1.0                                         
        1324  1327  1330  B6.9                                         
        1333  1339  1348  C1.1                                         
        1524  1555  1607  C2.3                                         
        1721  1724  1728  B7.3                                         
        1740  1743  1745  C1.0                                         
        1756  1805  1808  C3.0                                         
        1818  1822  1824  C1.4  SF  7592  S18W39                       
        2236  2242  2249  C1.1                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7590:  0   2   0     2   0   0   1   0    003  (20.0)
  Region 7592:  2   0   0     3   0   0   0   0    003  (20.0)
Uncorrellated:  6   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    009  (60.0)

 Total Events: 015 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
09 Oct: 0640  0643  0645  B5.8  SF  7592  S17W35   III
        1524  1555  1607  C2.3                     III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


