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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar & Geophysical Activity for 09 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 93 10:14:47 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                09 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 09 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 282, 10/09/93
10.7 FLUX=110.4  90-AVG=095        SSN=084      BKI=2456 4334  BAI=030
BGND-XRAY=B4.0     FLU1=2.0E+06  FLU10=9.6E+03  PKI=2467 5334  PAI=041
  BOU-DEV=010,056,080,137,050,021,025,063   DEV-AVG=055 NT     SWF=02:016
 XRAY-MAX= M3.5   @ 1916UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.7   @ 0655UT   XRAY-AVG= B9.3
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2215UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2140UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1545UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1340UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55365NT @ 2252UT   BOUTF-MIN=55305NT @ 1102UT  BOUTF-AVG=55340NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+058,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+119NT@ 1819UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-122NT@ 0804UT  G6-AVG=+074,+018,-057
 FLUXFCST=STD:110,105,105;SESC:110,105,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=040,025,015/035,025,012
    KFCST=4556 6544 4455 5433  27DAY-AP=010,082   27DAY-KP=1021 2334 5887 5434
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN;*AURLOWWCH
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.1/SF@0811UTC;**MINFLR:M3.5/3B@1915UTC;**MINSTRM
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 08 OCT 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 08 OCT 93 are: 1- 2- 4+ 4+   5- 2o 2- 2+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7590 (N10W85)
       produced an M1/SF flare at 09/0811Z and an M3/3B flare at
       09/1915Z. Weak discrete radio emissions accompanied both
       flares. No significant changes were noted in the region prior
       to these flares. Region 7592 (S16W41) also showed no
       significant change and produced two C-class subflares.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       mostly low. Region 7590 poses a slight but diminishing threat
       for additional M-class flaring as it crosses the limb.

            The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
       levels at middle latitudes for the past 24 hours. Higher
       latitudes ranged from unsettled to severe storm levels. The
       bulk of storm activity occurred between 09/0500-1300Z and was
       probably due to coronal hole effects.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at minor storm levels during the first day with
       brief periods of major to severe storming possible, especially
       at high latitudes. Activity is expected to decline to mostly
       active levels during the second day as coronal hole effects
       subside. The field is expected to decline to unsettled levels
       by the third day.

            Event probabilities 10 oct-12 oct

                             Class M    15/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 10 oct-12 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/25/25
                        Minor Storm           30/25/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    30/25/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/20
                        Minor Storm           30/30/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    40/35/05

            HF propagation conditions were well below normal over the
       polar and some high latitude regions.  Portions of the middle
       latitude regions (particularly those areas within the night and
       sunrise sectors) also experienced periods of significant signal
       degradation.  Near useless propagation occasionally plagued the
       transauroral (high latitude) and transpolar paths, again
       particularly within the night and sunrise sectors.  The
       disturbance arrived a little earlier than was first
       anticipated, and as a result, should begin to wane a little
       earlier than was previously thought.  Similar conditions are
       expected on 10 October, but should begin to improve late on 10
       October.  More serious improvements should be observed on 11
       and 12 October.  A strong SWF was observed in conjunction with
       the M3/3B flare from Region 7590.  Combined effects of the
       flare-related SWF and geomagnetic storming resulted in an
       almost spetrum-wide radio blackout on HF frequencies for
       approximately 5 to 10 minutes over the middle latitude sunlit
       paths.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7590  N10W85  226  0270 EAO  11  007 BETA
7592  S16W41  182  0320 EAI  13  024 BETA
7597  S20E59  082  0270 DAO  10  008 BETA
7598  S10E57  084  0020 BXO  07  005 BETA
7596  N05E06  135                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 10 OCTOBER TO 12 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 09 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0010 0014 0022 7592  S17W30 C1.5  SF    310
 0804 0811 0820 7590  N11W78 M1.1  SF        21
 1029 1029 1030                          120
 1905 1915 1921 7590  N11W78 M3.5  3B        34


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 09 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
38   N56W18 S10W37 N55W84 N60W54  192  EXT   POS   067 10830A
39   S19E30 S30E28 S20E18 S19E30  120  ISO   POS   001 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
08 Oct: 0244  0306  0339  B9.6                                         
        0424  0431  0440  C1.1  SF  7592  S17W17                       
        0707  0711  0717  B6.9                                         
        1145  1151  1157  C1.4                                         
        1407  1420  1427  C5.5  1N  7590  N11W63                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7590:  1   0   0     0   1   0   0   0    001  (20.0)
  Region 7592:  1   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (20.0)
Uncorrellated:  1   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    003  (60.0)

 Total Events: 005 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
08 Oct: 0244  0306  0339  B9.6                     III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


