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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 08 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 9 Oct 93 10:06:40 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                08 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 08 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 281, 10/08/93
10.7 FLUX=113.4  90-AVG=095        SSN=101      BKI=1144 4213  BAI=014
BGND-XRAY=B3.8     FLU1=1.0E+06  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=1244 5222  PAI=016
  BOU-DEV=006,009,048,042,040,016,009,021   DEV-AVG=023 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C5.5   @ 1421UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.9   @ 0653UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.9
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 0555UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2325UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1625UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1955UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55363NT @ 2200UT   BOUTF-MIN=55333NT @ 1711UT  BOUTF-AVG=55349NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+065,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+114NT@ 1854UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-084NT@ 0741UT  G6-AVG=+085,+018,-040
 FLUXFCST=STD:112,110,105;SESC:112,110,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,040,025/030,050,025
    KFCST=3444 5443 4556 6544  27DAY-AP=005,010   27DAY-KP=2112 1112 1021 2334
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF;*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN;*AURLOWWCH
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 07 OCT 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 07 OCT 93 are: 2- 1+ 1- 0o   1- 2- 2- 1o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. A few C-class flares were
       observed. The largest was a C5/1N from Region 7590 (N11W74). No
       significant changes occurred within this region during the
       period. The same was true of Region 7592 (S16W28). New Regions
       7597 (S19E70) and 7598 (S12E70) were assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Region 7590 may produce occasional C-class flares as it
       approaches the limb. There is also a slight chance for an
       isolated M-class flare from this region.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for
       the past 24 hours. Active levels began near 08/0700Z then
       declined to quiet levels near 08/1500Z. High latitude
       activity increased at the same time and ranged from minor to
       major storm levels. The high latitudes were back to quiet
       levels by 08/1500Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at active to minor storm levels tomorrow with
       an increase to minor to major storm levels by the second day.
       Activity is expected to decline to mostly active levels by the
       final day of the forecast period. This activity is expected in
       response to coronal hole effects.

            Event probabilities 09 oct-11 oct

                             Class M    20/15/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 09 oct-11 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/25
                        Minor Storm           20/30/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/25/25

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           25/30/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    25/30/30

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over the low
       and middle latitude regions.  Poor conditions existed for paths
       transiting the high (auroral) and polar latitude paths,
       particularly over the night sectors where enhanced levels of
       geomagnetic and auroral activity contributed to generally poor
       propagation.  Conditions are expected to deteriorate further on
       09 and 10 October in response to a well placed coronal hole.
       We believe the disturbance will likely begin sometime on 09
       October and continue through 10 October.  Very poor to near
       useless propagation may be observed at times during strong
       geomagnetic and auroral storm activity.  Conditions should
       begin to improve somewhat on 11 October, with stronger
       improvements anticipated by 12 October.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7590  N10W74  228  0520 EKO  15  016 BETA-GAMMA
7592  S16W28  182  0440 EKI  13  034 BETA
7597  S20E71  083  0110 CAO  12  007 BETA
7598  S11E70  084  0040 BXO  09  004 BETA
7596  N05E19  135                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 09 OCTOBER TO 11 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 08 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0049 0051 0051                          220


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 08 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
NONE


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
38   N50W08 S17W36 N30W68 N50W08  197  EXT   POS   058 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
07 Oct: 0026  0030  0034  B5.5                                         
        0409  0418  0427  C2.6  SF  7592  S14W03        30        34   
       B0858 U0904 A0910        SF  7590  N11W50                       
        0917  0934  0955        SF  7590  N14W54                       
        0919  0920  0926        SF  7592  S15W06                       
        1028  1031  1035        SF  7590  N15W53                       
        1209  1213  1215  C1.0                          26             
        1226  1229  1231  B8.4                                         
        1341  1348  1353  B9.8                                         
        1441  1443  1451        SF  7590  N13W54                       
        1451  1456  1509  C3.3  1F  7592  S14W09                       
        1810  1815  1817  C2.1                                         
        2132  2140  2143  C4.3                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7590:  0   0   0     4   0   0   0   0    004  (30.8)
  Region 7592:  2   0   0     2   1   0   0   0    003  (23.1)
Uncorrellated:  3   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    006  (46.2)

 Total Events: 013 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
07 Oct: 0026  0030  0034  B5.5                     III
        0409  0418  0427  C2.6  SF  7592  S14W03   Continuum
        1810  1815  1817  C2.1                     III,V

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


