From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Fri Oct  8 07:35:11 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA08675
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Fri, 8 Oct 1993 07:35:02 +0200
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA07408; Fri, 8 Oct 1993 07:34:46 +0200
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA07360; Fri, 8 Oct 1993 07:33:39 +0200
Return-Path: <oler@rho.uleth.ca>
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
 id AA12959; Thu, 7 Oct 93 22:17:07 -0600
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9310080417.AA12959@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 07 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 7 Oct 93 22:17:04 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 1055
Status: RO

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                07 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 07 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 280, 10/07/93
10.7 FLUX=116.7  90-AVG=095        SSN=071      BKI=1100 1110  BAI=001
BGND-XRAY=B4.1     FLU1=1.1E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=2110 1221  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=008,007,003,002,005,007,008,001   DEV-AVG=005 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C4.3   @ 2141UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.0   @ 0122UT   XRAY-AVG= B6.4
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2325UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 0215UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1810UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1905UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55360NT @ 0051UT   BOUTF-MIN=55342NT @ 1832UT  BOUTF-AVG=55354NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+074,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+114NT@ 1839UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-057NT@ 1410UT  G6-AVG=+093,+015,-037
 FLUXFCST=STD:115,112,110;SESC:115,112,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,020,040/010,020,050
    KFCST=2223 3333 3444 5443  27DAY-AP=006,005   27DAY-KP=2232 2222 2112 1112
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0511-2359UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 06 OCT 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 06 OCT 93 are: 4- 4- 4o 1o   1+ 2- 2- 3- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7592 (S16W14) produced a
       few C-class flares while displaying little change in size or
       complexity. Region 7590 (N10W57) was stable. No new regions
       were assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Region 7592 is likely to produce C-class subflares. It
       also poses a slight threat for isolated M-class activity.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past
       24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled during the first day. Activity is
       expected to increase to mostly active levels on the second day
       trending towards minor to major storm levels on day three due
       to coronal hole effects.

       STD: A Yohkoh x-ray image has been appended to this report
       showing the position of the coronal hole, as well as a new
       x-ray source (possibly two) approaching the east limb.
       Imagery suggests one of these new sources may be eruptive.

            Event probabilities 08 oct-10 oct

                             Class M    25/25/20
                             Class X    05/05/01
                             Proton     05/05/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 08 oct-10 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/30/30
                        Minor Storm           10/20/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/15/20

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/25/25
                        Minor Storm           10/25/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/25/25

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar normal conditions should continue until approximately
       late on 09 October.  At that time, conditions are expected to
       become moderately to strongly degraded, particularly on 10
       October.  The coronal hole discussed over the last several days
       is sweeping into the western hemisphere at the present time and
       should be in a geoeffective position on 10 and 11 October.  A
       moderate to strong ionospheric disturbance is expected to
       accompany this activity, based on strongly recurrent patterns
       and the present evolution of the hole.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7590  N10W57  224  0550 CKO  21  026 BETA-GAMMA
7592  S16W14  181  0530 EKO  15  025 BETA
7596  N05E32  135                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 08 OCTOBER TO 10 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 07 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
     NO DATA PRESENTLY AVAILABLE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 07 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
38   N57E40 S12W23 N30W68 N60W10  191  EXT   POS   086 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
06 Oct: 0104  0113  0123  B8.9                                         
        0137  0142  0146  C1.1                                         
        0525  0530  0532  B9.1  SF  7592  S12E03                       
        0825  0829  0832  C1.2  SF  7592  S13E12                       
        1400  1401  1411        SF  7592  S14E05                       
        1722  1726  1729  C1.6  SF  7590  N15W44                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7590:  1   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (16.7)
  Region 7592:  1   0   0     3   0   0   0   0    003  (50.0)
Uncorrellated:  1   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    002  (33.3)

 Total Events: 006 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
06 Oct: 0525  0530  0532  B9.1  SF  7592  S12E03   III,Loop

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT
===========================================================================

                      06 October 1993, 02:20 UTC

                                    North
                  .  ..........................,,......
           ...........,,,,,,,,,,....         ....,,,,,,,,....                  
          ......,,,,::::,,..                       ..,,,:,,...                 
       ......,,,,:::;::,..                     ..........,,,,.........         
    .......,,,,:::::,,,....                    .,,,,......,,,,,,,,,....        
   .....,,,::::::,,,,,,,,,..              .   ..,.,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.....     
   ...,,:::;;;:,,:::,,,,,,,...                .....,,,,,,,,,,:::::::,,,,.......
  ...,,:::;;;::,:::,,,,,,,.....              ......,,,::::::::::;;::::::,,,....
...,,,:;;;;:,,::,,,,,,::,,.....            .......,,::::::;;;;;;;;;;;;;::,,,,,.
..,,,:;;--;::::,,.,,,,,,,,,,........       ......,,,::::;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;::::,,,,
.,,::;;;-;::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,......  ...... ....,,::;;----++--;---;;;;;::::,,
.,::;;;--:::::::,,,::,,,,,,,,.,................,,,,:::;--+|!!!|+++++----;;;;:::
,::;;---;;--;::,:,:,,,,:,,,,,...... ............,,:::;-+!243211!||+++---++-;:::
::;;;;--;;;--:::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,.......:........,,:;-++!34@##32!!|+++-;-|31|-:::
:;;;;---;;;;!;:::::::,::,,,::,,.......,......,,::-|!1113*#*43!|!!!-+-;-!*!+;:::
;----++-;;;;-::::::::,:,,,,:,,,,,,.,,,,....,,:::;--||!111221!||++--;;;:;--;:::,
;-||||!!-;;;;;;-;;:::::::,,,::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,::;;-++||||||+---;;:::::::;:::,,
:;+!1223|-;;;;+!+;;:::::::;--+++||+-;::,,:::::,,,,::;;;-------;;:::::::::;::,,,
:;;-+!12!--;--|!+-;;:::::;++|!112111!!-:::::::::,,,:::::::::;;:::,,:;;;;--;:,,,
::;--+!14|-;;--;;:::::::;;-+|!13*#*42!+-;;;::::::,::,:::,,:::::,,,,:--!2|-;::,,
,::;-|!122-;;;;;;::::::;;++|!!1#@@@*1|-;;;;;;::::,,,,,:,,,:::::,,,::-!2!-;;;::,
,,::;;-++++-:::::,,,,,:;;-+|!134*431!++----;;;::::,,,,,,,,,,:::::::;;+++;;;:::,
.,,::;;-----;:::::::::::;;-+|!111!!!|++--;---;:::,,,,,,,,,,,::::;:;;---;;;:::,,
..,,:::;;;----;::;;::::::::;--+++++------;;;;;;::,,,,,,,,:,,::::;;----;;:::,,,,
...,,,::;;;;---;;;;::::,,,:::;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;:;:::,,,,,,,:::::::;---;;;:::,,...
 ....,,::::;;;;;;;::::,,,,:::::::;;;;;:::::::::::::::,,,,,,,::;--;;;;;::,,,....
 ....,,,,,::::;;;;;;;::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::;---;;;;::::,,,... .
    .....,,,,:::;;;;;;-;;::::::::::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,:::;;;;;;:::::::,,,...    
     ......,,,,:::;;;;;;;---;;;;;;;;:;;:::,,,......,,,,:::::::::,,,,,,...      
        ......,,,,:::;;;;;;;::::;::::;;:::::,,....      .....,,,,.....         
           .....,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,::::::,,...                               
              ........       .. .........,,,..                                 
                                          ...                                  

                                    South

KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission
     strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way:

     [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @

     Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes.  Get "showasc.zip"
     from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: xi.uleth.ca
     (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens.


**  End of Daily Report  **


