From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Thu Oct  7 16:11:29 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA21491
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Thu, 7 Oct 1993 16:11:26 +0200
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA05778; Thu, 7 Oct 1993 16:10:00 +0200
Received: from cc.lut.fi by lut.fi with SMTP
 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA04083; Thu, 7 Oct 1993 15:38:44 +0200
Return-Path: <oler@rho.uleth.ca>
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by cc.lut.fi with SMTP
 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA13558; Thu, 7 Oct 1993 15:37:52 +0200
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
 id AA06944; Thu, 7 Oct 93 07:35:30 -0600
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9310071335.AA06944@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 7 Oct 93 7:35:27 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 1053
Status: RO

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                06 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 06 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 279, 10/06/93
10.7 FLUX=118.1  90-AVG=094        SSN=097      BKI=3341 2212  BAI=010
BGND-XRAY=B3.5     FLU1=1.5E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=4441 1223  PAI=013
  BOU-DEV=031,038,062,007,011,013,008,019   DEV-AVG=023 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.6   @ 1727UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.3   @ 0651UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.7
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1250UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 1835UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1740UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 0300UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55361NT @ 2151UT   BOUTF-MIN=55344NT @ 0355UT  BOUTF-AVG=55354NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+056,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+113NT@ 1555UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-068NT@ 0754UT  G6-AVG=+077,+020,-044
 FLUXFCST=STD:114,110,106;SESC:114,110,106 BAI/PAI-FCST=008,010,015/010,010,020
    KFCST=3213 3222 1234 2222  27DAY-AP=005,006   27DAY-KP=2122 2111 2232 2222
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 05 OCT 93 was  43.8.
      The Full Kp Indices for 05 OCT 93 are: 1o 1o 1- 1-   1- 3- 2+ 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Regions 7590 (N11W42) and
       7592 (S15E01) produced one small C-class flare each. Vector
       magnetograms from 05 Oct show a minor amount of shear in the
       trailer of Region 7590 and none of significance in Region 7592.
       Both regions decayed slightly. A small region emerged at
       N04E46 and was numbered as 7596.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should continue
       generally low. The likelihood of M-class flares from Regions
       7590 and 7592 is diminishing.

            The geomagnetic field began the period at quiet levels. Mostly
       active conditions began near the start of 06 Oct and continued
       through 06/0900Z. Quiet levels were experienced for the
       remainder of the period.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field
       should be mostly unsettled until late on 09 Oct when a
       coronal hole related disturbance is forecast to begin.

            Event probabilities 07 oct-09 oct

                             Class M    25/25/25
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 07 oct-09 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/30
                        Minor Storm           05/05/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/30
                        Minor Storm           05/05/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/10

            STD: HF propagation conditions were normal over all
       regions. Minor levels of signal degradation were experienced
       over some high and polar latitude stations during the first
       half of the UTC day, due to enhanced levels of geomagnetic and
       auroral activity.  Conditions then returned to near-normal for
       the remainder of the day.  Propagation conditions are expected
       to continue near-normal throughout the next 48 to 72 hours.
       Minor levels of signal degradation may again be observed during
       the latter half of 09 October.  A moderate ionospheric storm
       could develop on 10 and 11 October as a well-placed (and
       previously very geoeffective) coronal hole blows a high-speed
       solar wind stream past the Earth.  This disturbance last
       affected the Earth on 12 to 15 September and produced a major
       geomagnetic and auroral storm (planetary A-index of 82 on 13
       September), with frequent periods of severe magnetic
       perturbations (high and some middle-latitude K-indices as high
       as 8) during the peak of the disturbance.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7590  N11W43  223  0550 FKI  19  027 BETA-GAMMA
7592  S15W00  180  0540 EKO  13  028 BETA
7595  N07W90  270  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7596  N04E45  135  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 07 OCTOBER TO 09 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 06 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0411 0412 0412                          110
 0525 0530 0532 7592  S12E03 B9.1  SF    110
 0617 0618 0624                          110
 1509 1509 1509                          140
 2112 2112 2113                          110


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 06 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
06/B1428             B1727       S12E44   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA PRESENTLY AVAILABLE


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
05 Oct: 0849  0855  0904  B8.5  SF  7592  S13E22                       
        1123  1123  1137        SF  7590  N10W35                  86        89
        1131  1132  1138        SF  7590  N11W34                       
        1201  1205  1209  C1.0  SF  7590  N10W18                       
        1529  1531 A1548        SF  7595  N04W72                       
        1601  1616  1619  B9.5  SF  7592  S14E17                       
        1930  1937  1941  C1.9                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7590:  1   0   0     3   0   0   0   0    003  (42.9)
  Region 7592:  0   0   0     2   0   0   0   0    002  (28.6)
  Region 7595:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (14.3)
Uncorrellated:  1   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    001  (14.3)

 Total Events: 007 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
05 Oct: 1123  1123  1137        SF  7590  N10W35   III

NOTES:
     All times are in U

