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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 03 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 4 Oct 93 7:28:24 MDT
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                03 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 03 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 276, 10/03/93
10.7 FLUX=124.7  90-AVG=094        SSN=118      BKI=1110 1221  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=B2.9     FLU1=4.1E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=1222 1223  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=006,009,008,004,006,012,010,008   DEV-AVG=007 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C8.6   @ 0930UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.6   @ 1527UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.9
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 0850UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1810UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1725UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1250UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55365NT @ 2235UT   BOUTF-MIN=55341NT @ 1811UT  BOUTF-AVG=55356NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+073,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+113NT@ 0450UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-062NT@ 1443UT  G6-AVG=+093,+013,-040
 FLUXFCST=STD:122,120,116;SESC:122,120,116 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,008,008/010,010,010
    KFCST=3213 3222 3213 3222  27DAY-AP=011,009   27DAY-KP=3333 3223 2332 2323
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF
   ALERTS=**TENFLR:230SFU@0924UTC,DUR=4MIN;**TENFLR:150SFU@1247UTC;
          **245STRM:0517-1607UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 02 OCT 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 02 OCT 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7590 (N11W03) produced the
       largest event of the period - a C8.6/1B at 03/0930Z. The leader
       spot in this region elongated. The isolated pole remains in the
       trailer of this large but basically bipolar region. Region 7592
       (S14E41) stabilized and produced no burst activity. New Region
       7595 (N06W49) emerged and exhibited bright plage.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should become
       moderate. Region 7590 retains the capability of generating
       isolated M-class flares. A major flare from this region
       remains a possibility.

            The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field
       should be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.

            Event probabilities 04 oct-06 oct

                             Class M    60/60/60
                             Class X    10/10/10
                             Proton     10/10/10
                             PCAF       Yellow

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 04 oct-06 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            STD: HF propagation conditions were near-normal over the
       last 24 hours.  Similar near-normal conditions should continue
       for the next 3 days, through at least 06 October inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7590  N11W04  224  1020 FKI  21  050 BETA-GAMMA
7592  S14E40  180  0520 EKI  11  019 BETA
7593  S18W45  265  0080 CAO  05  005 BETA
7595  N06W50  270  0030 CRO  03  004 BETA
7591  N07W18  238                    PLAGE
7594  N09W28  248                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 04 OCTOBER TO 06 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 03 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0313 0323 0333 7590  N07E02 B9.1  SF    710
 0814 0817 0821 7590  N08W02 B6.3  SF    430
 0905 0909 0916              C1.0       5600 92
 0916 0930 0938 7590  N08W02 C8.6  1B    360 230
 0931 0931 1005 7590  N12E01       SB   1600
 1211 1225 1237 7590  N11E02 B8.4  SF    130
 1240 1247 1254 7590  N08W03 C3.0  SN   2100 150
 1927 1927 1928                          110


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 03 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
37   N55W44 N32W84 N60W90 N60W90  299  EXT   POS   023 10830A
38   N43E47 S04E36 N18E14 N43E47  195  EXT   POS   021 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
02 Oct: 0214  0216  0219        SF  7592  S14E67                       
        0224  0225  0231        SF  7590  N09E16                       
        0426  0429  0431  B8.5                                         
        0449  0453  0457  B7.6  SF  7590  N08E23                       
        0625  0628  0636        SF  7592  S15E62                       
        0656  0658  0700        SF  7592  S15E61                       
        0706  0707  0712        SF  7592  S15E63                       
        0729  0742  0748  C6.5  1N  7590  N08E14        66       170       450
        0804  0810  0818  B8.0  SF  7590  N10E17                       
        0859  0902  0905  B9.5  SF  7592  S15E60                       
        0909  0913  0919  C1.1  SF  7592  S15E60                       
        1115  1121  1128  C1.5                                         
        1210  1213  1217  C5.0  SN  7590  N10E21        89        86        42
        1352  1355  1359  B9.0                                         
        1407  1414  1418  B9.9  SF  7590  N11E14                       
        1611  1611  1620        SF  7590  N07E08                       
        1650  1725  1750  C1.8  SF  7590  N11E13                       
        1916  1924  1929  B7.1  SF  7590  N08E07                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7590:  3   1   0     9   1   0   0   0    010  (52.6)
  Region 7592:  1   0   0     6   0   0   0   0    006  (31.6)
Uncorrellated:  1   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    003  (15.8)

 Total Events: 019 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
02 Oct: 0628  0633  0636  M1.4  SN  7590  N10E24   III
        0656  0658  0700        SF  7592  S15E61   III
        0729  0742  0748  C6.5  1N  7590  N08E14   III
        1115  1121  1128  C1.5                     III
        1210  1213  1217  C5.0  SN  7590  N10E21   III,V
        1407  1414  1418  B9.9  SF  7590  N11E14   V

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


