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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 02 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 2 Oct 93 20:45:33 MDT
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Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                02 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 02 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 275, 10/02/93
10.7 FLUX=126.8  90-AVG=093        SSN=114      BKI=1123 1221  BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=B5.0     FLU1=5.4E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2233 2321  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=008,005,018,025,006,015,010,008   DEV-AVG=011 NT     SWF=01:002
 XRAY-MAX= M1.4   @ 0633UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.9   @ 2028UT   XRAY-AVG= B8.7
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2220UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2320UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1145UT     PCA-MIN= -0.9DB @ 1510UT    PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55364NT @ 2303UT   BOUTF-MIN=55335NT @ 1729UT  BOUTF-AVG=55354NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+074,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+125NT@ 1726UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-064NT@ 1415UT  G6-AVG=+094,+012,-042
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,132,135;SESC:130,132,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=3123 3222 3213 3222  27DAY-AP=012,011   27DAY-KP=4333 2222 3333 3223
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.4/SN@0633UTC;**TENFLR:120SFU@0631UTC,DUR=2MIN;
          **245STRM:0638-0825UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 01 OCT 93 was  30.4.
      The Full Kp Indices for 01 OCT 93 are: 5o 4+ 5- 5-   3o 3- 2+ 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7590 (N12E10)
       produced an M1.4/SN at 02/0633Z with a 120 sfu 10cm burst. This
       region also produced several mid-high C-class flares. Some
       penumbral decay was noted which may result in the loss of the
       delta configuration here before too long. Region 7592 (S13E53)
       continued to emerge strongly and now is over 400 millionths in
       area. This region produced several subflares. Two small regions
       emerged near S16W29 and N09W14 and were numbered as 7593 and
       7594 respectively.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should continue
       moderate with 7590 the likely source of M-class flares.
       Larger events from 7590 remain a possibility. Region 7592
       could contribute isolated small M-class flares should growth
       continue.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field
       should continue to be quiet to unsettled for the next
       three days.

            Event probabilities 03 oct-05 oct

                             Class M    75/75/75
                             Class X    15/15/15
                             Proton     15/15/15
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 03 oct-05 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions recovered to near-normal over
       all regions today.  No changes are expected over the next three
       days, through 05 October inclusive, barring potentially
       influential solar activity.  There is a high risk for possible
       SWF activity over daylit paths from possible M-class or greater
       solar flares.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7590  N12E09  224  0890 FKI  19  052 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7592  S13E52  181  0470 DAI  10  014 BETA
7593  S16W30  263  0030 CRO  03  005 BETA
7594  N09W15  248  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7588  N19W84  317                    PLAGE
7591  N07W05  238                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 03 OCTOBER TO 05 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 02 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0300 0300 0301                          150
 0324 0324 0324                          120
 0514 0515 0515                          120
 0554 0554 0554                          150
 0628 0633 0636 7590  N10E24 M1.4  SN    270 120
 0706 0707 0712 7592  S15E63       SF   1100
 0729 0742 0748 7590  N08E14 C6.5  1N   1300 66
 1115 1121 1128              C1.5        180
 1210 1213 1217 7590  N10E21 C5.0  SN    300 89
 1407 1414 1418 7590  N11E14 B9.9  SF    360
 1519 1519 1520                          180


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 02 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
37   N59W25 N25W72 N42W84 N66W75  297  EXT   POS   035 10830A
38   N15E61 S15E45 N15E24 N30E38  191  ISO   POS   017 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
01 Oct: 0011  0015  0019  C1.2  SF  7590  N09E41                       
        0048  0048  0055        SF  7589  N19W78                       
        0132  0133  0135        SF  7589  N18W80                       
        0222  0232  0238  B7.9  SF  7590  N10E33                       
        0415  0419  0422  B6.1  SF  7590  N08E28                       
        0840  0849  0859  C2.2  SF  7592  S12E77                       
        1120  1128  1135  C1.3  SF  7592  S05E63                       
        1138  1149  1214        SF  7592  S09E68                       
        1304  1307  1310  C1.4                                         
        1542  1553  1604        SF  7592  S13E69                       
        1615  1616  1634        SF  7590  N08E21        37        23   
        1734  1744  1809        SF  7592  S14E71                       
        1740  1745  1800  B9.5  SF  7590  N07E20                       
        1912  1918  1930  B8.4                                         
        1936  1941  1944  C1.0                                         
        2023  2033  2047  B6.6  SF  7590  N08E28                       
        2211  2216  2222  B8.6                                         
        2344  2355  0003  C8.5  1F  7592  S14E69        60        94        77


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7589:  0   0   0     2   0   0   0   0    002  (11.1)
  Region 7590:  1   0   0     6   0   0   0   0    006  (33.3)
  Region 7592:  3   0   0     5   1   0   0   0    006  (33.3)
Uncorrellated:  2   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    004  (22.2)

 Total Events: 018 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
01 Oct: 0011  0015  0019  C1.2  SF  7590  N09E41   III
        0222  0232  0238  B7.9  SF  7590  N10E33   III
        0415  0419  0422  B6.1  SF  7590  N08E28   III
        2023  2033  2047  B6.6  SF  7590  N08E28   II

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT
===========================================================================

                          02 October 1993, 02:40 UTC

                                    North
                .... ... ................,...........,,,,:::,,,,.....
             ......,...,,..,,,,,,,,,.............,,::;;;:::::::,,,......       
     .   .........,,,,,,,,.....,,,,,,.....         .,::;;;;:::::,,,,......     
     ..........,,,,,::,,.....,,,:::::,,,....... .. .   .,,:;;:::::,,,,...      
  . ...,.,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:::::::,,,,,,,,........    ..,:;;::::,,,,..  .  
 ......,,,,,:::::,,.,,,::,::::::::::::,,,,,,,,,,..........  ...,;;;:::,,,......
....,,,,,::::::,,,:,,,::::::;::::::::::,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,..,........:;;;:::,,,,...
.,,,,,::::;;;:,,,.,,,,:;;;;;;;;;;;;;:::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.........:-;;;:::,,,.
.,,,:::::;;;:,,,,,,,,:;-----------;;;;;:::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,..,..,;---;;:::,,
,,:::::;;;;:,,,,,,,:::;-++++++++-------;;;;:::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:-+|+-;::,,
,,:::;;;;;:,,,,,,,::::;+||||||||||+++++--;;;;:::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:::+1#2+;:::,
,:::;;;--::,,,,,:::::;-|!!!!!!!!!!!||||++-;;;;;::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,::-!!!+-;::,
,::;;;--;::::::;;;;;;-|!1124###*31!||||++--;;:::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:;;--;;::,
::;;----::;::;;;-----+|!23@@@@@#41|||++++|+-;:::::::::,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,::;-;;::,
:;;---+-:;;;;;----++||!14*##@#441!||||!!|!1+;;;::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,:;+-;;::
:;;--+++;;;;;;---+|||!23334432!+|!!!!|+--++-:::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:;++-;::
:;;--+|!------;-+||||!111111!|----++--;;;;::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,:;131+-::
:;;-+|1211|++----+++++++++++--;;:::::;::::::,,,,,,......,,,.,.,,,,:,,,:;33!-;;:
::;-+|1244#2!+-----------;;;;;;:::::,::::::::::,,.....,..,,,,,,,,::,,,:-21|;;::
,:;;-+|14*@@1+--;;;;;;;;;;:;;::::::,,,,,,,::;;::,,,,,,,,...,,,,,,:,,,::-+-;;:::
.,,:;--+|121+--;;;;;;;;::::;::::::::,:::::::--:;:;;:::::,,,:,,,,,,,,,:;--;;::::
..,,:;--++++-;;;;::::::::::::::::::,::;;::::--::::;::,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,;-;;;;:::,
 ...,,::;;;;;;:::::::::,,,,,,,:::::::;;;:::::::;;::::::,,,,,,,,,,,::;;;;::::,,,
 ....,,,:;-++-;;:::::,:,,,,,,,,,,:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::;;;;:::,,,,,,
   ...,,;------;::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:::::,,,,,,,::::::::,:::::;;;:::,,,.....
    ..:;---------;:::::,::,,::::,,:,::,,:,,,,,,,::::::::::::::;;;;:::,,,,......
   ..,:;;;----++++++-;::::::::::::,,,,,,,:,,:::::::::::::::::;:::::,,,....     
    ....,,,::;;;-------;;;::::::::::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,::::::::,,,,,,....        
           .....,,,::::::::::::,,::,:,,,,,,,,,......,,,,,,,,.......            
             .. ....,,,..........,,,,,....,........                            
                               .   ...    ... .                                

                                    South

KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission
     strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way:

     [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @

     Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes.  Get "showasc.zip"
     from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: xi.uleth.ca
     (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens.


**  End of Daily Report  **


