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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 01 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 2 Oct 93 12:23:20 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                01 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 01 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 274, 10/01/93
10.7 FLUX=116.9  90-AVG=093        SSN=101      BKI=5454 3331  BAI=024
BGND-XRAY=B4.6     FLU1=2.1E+06  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=5455 3322  PAI=025
  BOU-DEV=097,060,084,068,021,029,021,005   DEV-AVG=048 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C8.5   @ 2356UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.6   @ 0751UT   XRAY-AVG= B6.6
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1810UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2310UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1410UT     PCA-MIN= -0.9DB @ 1750UT    PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55372NT @ 0203UT   BOUTF-MIN=55331NT @ 1834UT  BOUTF-AVG=55351NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+062,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+114NT@ 1713UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-084NT@ 0753UT  G6-AVG=+083,+011,-050
 FLUXFCST=STD:120,120,115;SESC:120,120,115 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/018,010,010
    KFCST=3225 3111 1113 3111  27DAY-AP=032,012   27DAY-KP=5664 3323 4333 2222
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=1@2024-2029UTC;**245STRM:0505-1611UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 30 SEP 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 30 SEP 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Most of today's C-level flare
       activity came from Region 7590 (N13E22) including a C1/SF at
       30/2244Z which was accompanied by a moderate Type II sweep.
       There was some evidence of decay in the trailer part of the
       group and the delta appeared to be nearly gone by day's end:
       the plage has cooled off in this part of the group. On the
       other hand some new positive polarity spots began to emerge in
       a circular arc in front of and above the large negative
       polarity leader of the group. Shear analysis shows some
       significant magnetic shear just to the northeast of the
       leader. Region 7592 (S13E66) has rotated more clearly into view
       as a bright (but small) C-type group which also contributed a
       couple of C-class flares during the period. A weak Type II
       sweep was reported to have occurred at 01/2034Z and may have
       been related to a subflare out of Region 7590 which was in
       progress at that time.

       STD: The latter observed Type II sweep had an estimated
       velocity of only 350 km/sec.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       moderate. Region 7590 still shows good potential for producing
       moderate sized flares. There is a slight chance for a major
       flare as well.

            The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels
       from the beginning of the period through about 1500Z, with some
       reports of isolated major storming at high latitudes. Con-
       ditions have calmed down to mostly unsettled since then. The
       disturbance fits in with a recurrence pattern in the
       geomagnetic record.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active for the next 12 hours as
       a result of local midnight substorm activity. Conditions
       should return to predominantly unsettled thereafter and for
       the remainder of the forecast period.

            Event probabilities 02 oct-04 oct

                             Class M    70/70/70
                             Class X    15/15/15
                             Proton     15/15/15
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 02 oct-04 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                40/15/15
                        Minor Storm           15/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/15/15
                        Minor Storm           20/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/01/01

            STD: HF propagation conditions were below-normal over the
       high and polar latitude regions during the first half of the
       UTC day.  Conditions began improving slowly after 15:00 UTC.
       MUFs have been depressed by as much as 30 percent over the high
       and polar latitude paths.  Middle latitudes saw MUF depressions
       of between 15 to 25 percent below normal.  Conditions are
       expected to slowly recover over the next 48 hours, and should
       be near-normal over all regions (barring any possible
       influential solar activity) by about 04 October.  There is a
       high risk for SWF activity over daylit paths, particularly on
       equatorial to middle latitude paths.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 01/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7585  S07W94  340  0030 HSX  03  001 ALPHA
7589  N18W93  339  0010 BXO  03  002 BETA
7590  N13E22  224  0980 FKI  19  052 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7592  S13E66  180  0170 CAO  07  006 BETA
7588  N19W71  317                    PLAGE
7591  N07E08  238                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 02 OCTOBER TO 04 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 01 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0614 0615 0615                         1400
 0652 0652 0653                          520
 0712 0712 0713                          390
 0916 0916 0917                          430
 1615 1616 1634 7590  N08E21       SF    290 37
 2023 2033 2047 7590  N08E28 B6.6  SF               II
 2115 2115 2117                         4200
 2232 2232 2232                         3700
 2244 2244 2245                          390


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 01 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
01/ 2024              2029       N08E28   RSP    B6.6   24  1


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 01/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
37   N55W19 N26W64 N35W90 N63W64  304  EXT   POS   045 10830A
38   N20E76 S02E76 N15E41 N30E56  188  ISO   POS   020 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
NO DATA AVAILABLE


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
                          NO DATA AVAILABLE


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO DATA AVAILABLE

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


