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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Monthly Review of Solar & Geophysical Activity for Oct 93
To: solar-monthly@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 27 Dec 93 12:40:50 MST
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           --  MONTHLY REVIEW OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY  --
                           Summary for October 1993

                            Report compiled by the
                          Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
                                 P.O. Box 357
                              Stirling, Alberta
                               T0K 2E0, Canada
 
                    Data Provided In-Part Courtesy of the
                   Space Environment Services Center, NOAA
                                   and the
                NRC / Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory
                     Penticton, British Columbia, Canada

 **  NOTE: The monthly report and statistics for Sep 93 are not available  **


MONTHLY ACTIVITY SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 1993

     We are now in month 86 of solar cycle 22 (as of Oct 1993).  There were
260 flares (optical and x-ray) in October. No major flares were recorded and
only 3 M-class flares were observed.

     A breakdown of the energetic events for the last four months follows
below.
         ____________________________________________________________
        |                    | OCT '93 | SEP '93 | AUG '93 | JUL '93 |
        |                    | --------|---------|---------|---------|
        |              Major |      0  |   N/A   |     0   |     0   |
        |      Minor M-class |      3  |   N/A   |     1   |     4   |
        | Class C or smaller |    257  |   N/A   |   151   |   198   |
        |--------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
        |              Total |    260  |   N/A   |   152   |   202   |
         ------------------------------------------------------------

     The monthly sunspot number for October was 73.5 as computed by the
SESC.  The preliminary RI international sunspot number for October was 55.4.
The preliminary smoothed international sunspot number centered on April of
this year was 63.4.

     The monthly 10.7 cm solar radio flux for October was 100.3 which
results in a preliminary smoothed mean flux value of 118.1 centered on
April 1993.  The monthly mean solar flux adjusted to 1 AU was 99.7.  The
best absolute value of the estimated 10.7 cm solar radio flux for the month
was 89.7 (Series D).

     The largest flare of October occurred on 09 October from Region 7590,
the most prolific flare producer.  The M3.5/3B flare occurred at 19:15 UTC
but was not accompanied by any substantial radio emissions or sweep frequency
events.  This region was responsible for 20% or 52 of the observed flares
during the month.  Region 7592 followed with 11% or 28 of the observed
flares.

     There were no significant proton enhancements at geosynchronous
satellite altitudes during the month.

     The list of minor M-class or greater flares and associated radio
emissions observed during October follows:

SUMMARY OF MAJOR ENERGETIC EVENTS
---------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
NO MAJOR ENERGETIC EVENTS OBSERVED.


SUMMARY OF MINOR M-CLASS EVENTS
-------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
02 Oct: 0628  0633  0636  M1.4  SN  7590  N10E24       120       380       250
09 Oct: 0804  0811  0820  M1.1  SF  7590  N11W78        21        68        41
        1905  1915  1921  M3.5  3B  7590  N11W78        34                  30


REGION FLARE STATISTICS
-----------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7589:  0   0   0     2   0   0   0   0    002  ( 0.8)
  Region 7590: 15   3   0    46   5   0   1   0    052  (20.0)
  Region 7592: 10   0   0    26   2   0   0   0    028  (10.8)
  Region 7593:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  ( 0.4)
  Region 7595:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  ( 0.4)
  Region 7597:  2   0   0     8   0   0   0   0    008  ( 3.1)
  Region 7601:  1   0   0    10   0   0   0   0    010  ( 3.8)
  Region 7603:  0   0   0     2   0   0   0   0    002  ( 0.8)
  Region 7604:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  ( 0.4)
  Region 7605:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  ( 0.4)
  Region 7608:  5   0   0     8   2   0   0   0    011  ( 4.2)
  Region 7610:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  ( 0.4)
  Region 7612:  1   0   0     0   0   1   0   0    001  ( 0.4)
  Region 7613:  1   0   0     2   0   0   0   0    002  ( 0.8)
Uncorrellated: 27   0   0     2   0   0   0   0    139  (53.5)

 Total Events: 260 optical and x-ray.

     The estimated planetary A-index for October was 14, compared with 15 for
September. This gives an estimated smoothed value of 14.9 centered on
April 1993.  There were no sudden magnetic impulses recorded during October.

     The most active days of the month were 09 and 27 October where the
planetary A-index reached 41 (strong minor storm) on both days.  The bulk of
the activity on 09 October occurred between 05:00 and 13:00 UTC and was
the result of a strongly recurrent and well-placed coronal hole.  The
disturbance on 27 October was likely the result of a well-placed extension of
the southern polar coronal crown that was well defined in Yohkoh x-ray
imagery.  This disturbance was more energetic than was expected.


    RECENT SOLAR INDICES (PRELIMINARY) OF THE OBSERVED MONTHLY MEAN VALUES
                        Last Updated 06 November, 1993
 
              Sunspot Numbers                   Radio Flux    Geomagnetic 
      ------------------------------------    --------------  -----------
       Observed     Ratio    Smooth Values   Penticton Smooth   Smooth
      SESC    RI   RI/SESC    SESC    RI      10.7 cm  Value   Ap  Value
      ------------------------------------    --------------  -----------
                                 YEAR = 1989
Jan:  203.2  161.6  .80       189.2  141.9     235.4  190.2    19   16.7 
Feb:  211.0  164.5  .78       196.0  144.7     222.4  194.0    15   17.0 
Mar:  176.8  131.0  .74       204.1  149.4     205.1  199.7    41   17.6 
 
Apr:  172.3  129.3  .75       209.9  153.1     189.6  204.4    23   18.2 
May:  207.0  138.4  .67       216.4  156.5     190.1  209.3    16   18.8 
Jun:  297.3  196.0  .66       220.1  157.9     239.6  213.1    17   19.2 
 
Jul:  193.9  126.8  .65       221.1  158.1     181.9  212.6     8   19.1 
Aug:  243.0  166.8  .69       221.5  157.4     217.1  209.7    20   19.3 
Sep:  240.7  176.8  .74       221.3  156.3     225.9  207.2    17   18.8 
 
Oct:  217.4  158.5  .73       223.2  157.1     208.7  206.3    21   18.3 
Nov:  255.0  173.0  .68       223.4  157.3     235.1  206.1    19   18.4 
Dec:  217.8  166.1  .76       217.3  153.3     213.0  203.3    16   18.4 
 
                                 YEAR = 1990
Jan:  239.3  177.3  .74       212.4  150.6     210.1  200.4    14   18.6 
Feb:  184.7  130.5  .71       213.9  152.9     178.3  200.5    23   18.8 
Mar:  198.6  140.3  .71       212.7  152.0     188.8  198.7    23   18.6 
 
Apr:  196.1  140.3  .72       210.5  149.3     185.3  195.6    27   18.3 
May:  187.7  132.2  .70       208.1  147.0     189.7  192.4    16   17.6 
Jun:  168.9  105.4  .62       205.3  143.8     170.9  189.9    16   16.8 
 
Jul:  204.3  149.4  .73       203.8  140.6     180.7  190.4    14   16.2 
Aug:  269.4  200.3  .74       206.3  140.5     222.6  193.9    19   15.4 
Sep:  186.4  125.2  .67       211.1  142.1     177.4  198.3    14   15.0 
 
Oct:  219.0  145.5  .66       213.1  142.1     182.0  200.6    15   14.8 
Nov:  196.1  131.4  .67       213.7  141.7     184.3  201.2     9   14.4 
Dec:  208.0  129.7  .62       216.1  143.9     204.9  202.7     7   15.7 
 
                                 YEAR = 1991
Jan:  213.5  136.9  .64       220.5  147.6     229.4  205.5     8   17.4 
Feb:  270.2  167.5  .62       221.5  147.6     243.0  206.3    10   18.4 
Mar:  227.9  141.9  .62       220.7  146.6     230.0  205.9    27   19.1   

Apr:  215.9  140.0  .65       220.7  146.5     198.8  206.8    17   20.0
May:  182.5  121.3  .66       219.6  145.5     190.3  207.1    18   21.7
Jun:  231.8  169.7  .73       218.9  145.2     206.8  207.4    44   23.0
 
Jul:  245.7  173.7  .71       219.5  146.3     212.0  207.7    27   23.6
Aug:  251.5  176.3  .70       218.3  146.5     210.3  206.8    30   24.7
Sep:  185.8  125.3  .67       214.2  144.7     180.6  203.9    20   25.0
 
Oct:  220.1  144.1  .65       208.4  141.6     201.3  199.7    31   24.3
Nov:  169.0  108.2  .64       202.2  137.9     172.0  195.4    33   24.1
Dec:  217.7  144.4  .66       193.7  131.6     223.9  188.9    15   23.0

                                 YEAR = 1992
Jan:  217.9  149.3  .69       183.3  123.6     217.6  181.8    14   21.1
Feb:  238.2  159.6  .67       171.8  115.2     232.1  174.8    31   19.8
Mar:  160.5  106.9  .67       161.6  108.0     171.3  168.5    14   19.4

Apr:  144.0   99.8  .69       154.3  103.1     158.5  162.9    11   18.9
May:  106.3   73.8  .69       148.9  100.1     125.4  158.8    21   17.5
Jun:  104.7   65.2  .62       143.3   96.9     116.7  154.2    15   16.6

Jul:  121.4   85.7  .71       134.3   90.6     132.3  146.6    10   16.6
Aug:   99.5   64.5  .65       124.4   84.0     122.1  138.9    15   16.1
Sep:   93.8   63.9  .68       117.5   79.6     116.8  133.7    25   15.9

Oct:  136.2   88.3  .65       113.4   76.5     130.8  130.5    15   16.7
Nov:  124.3   92.0  .74       110.4   74.4     145.2  128.2    14   16.6
Dec:  127.4   83.3  .65       107.7   73.2     139.1  127.3    13   16.2

                                 YEAR = 1993
Jan:   92.1   59.3  .64       104.5   71.3     121.0  125.6    17   16.0
Feb:  126.1   91.0  .72       101.2   69.2     142.6  123.0    16   15.9
Mar:  107.4   69.8  .65        97.0   66.6     136.4  120.6    24   15.3

Apr:   98.6   62.2  .63        91.9   63.4*    115.9  118.1*   19   14.9
May:   79.1   61.3  .77                        112.4           12
Jun:   68.5   49.8  .73                        109.3           12

Jul:   81.6   57.3  .70                         99.0           10
Aug:   59.4   42.0  .71                         93.7           12
Sep:   33.5   21.7  .65                         87.0           15

Oct:   73.5   55.4* .75*                       100.2*          14
 
* = Preliminary estimates,  Unmarked = Final Values.
 
The lowest smoothed sunspot number for Cycle 21, RI = 12.3, occurred in 
September 1986.  The sunspot maximum for this cycle (cycle 22) occurred in 
July 1989, with a peak smoothed sunspot number (RI) of 158.1.

Note: Prior to June 1991, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux measurements
originated from the Algonquin Radio Observatory near Ottawa.  From June 1991
onward, the flux has been (and will continue to be) measured from the
Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory at Penticton, British Columbia,
Canada.


**  End of Monthly Report  **


