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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9310081559.AA18346@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: AURORA WARNING: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Warning
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 8 Oct 93 9:59:14 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
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Status: RO

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                   MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

                     WARNING ISSUED: 14:10 UT, 08 OCTOBER

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 12 OCTOBER

    HIGH RISK PERIOD: 10 Oct - 11 Oct (UT days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 09 Oct - 12 Oct

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES FOR NEXT 4 DAYS: 20, 60, 35, 23, 15  (09 - 13 OCT)
(INPUT INTO THE AURORAL SIMULATION SOFTWARE *)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:  MODERATE - HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: 48 TO 72 HOURS

POTENTIAL LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES:  GOOD - VERY GOOD

APPROXIMATE OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS (LOCAL TIME): NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        OREGON TO SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO TO WYOMING TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO
        SOUTHERN IOWA TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO CENTRAL INDIANA TO OHIO TO
        PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW JERSEY AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF DELAWARE.  THERE
        IS ALSO A CHANCE POINTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF
        ACTIVITY.

ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        THE U.K. TO EXTREME NORTHERN FRANCE TO BELGIUM TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO
        SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO SOUTHERN FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. EXTREME
        SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO
        SPOT ACTIVITY DURING THE WARNING PERIOD.

* Contact: Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA or COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu for more information
           regarding the Auroral Activity Prediction and Simulation Software.

SYNOPSIS...

     A large and recurrent solar coronal hole is expected to produce a
     high-speed solar wind stream that will sweep past the Earth from
     approximately 10 to 12 October.  This same disturbance produced a major
     auroral storm last month.  Analysis of the coronal hole shows that it
     has expanded in area toward the solar equatorial regions, suggesting the
     disturbance may last a bit longer than was observed last month.
     Confidence levels are fairly high that this disturbance will be about as
     severe as was observed last month.  Periods of intense auroral activity
     are expected to accompany this disturbance, with strong levels of
     activity observable from the middle latitude regions.  The waning moon
     will not significantly hamper attempts to view activity, particularly
     prior to approximately 1:30 am local time when the moon should begin
     rising.

     For those with our Auroral Oval Simulation Software, optimal input
     values of between 40 and 60 should be used on 10 October.  Use the
     Internet command: "finger aurora@xi.uleth.ca" to obtain current forecast
     values and synoptical information.

     This warning will remain active until 19:00 UT on 12 October when it
     will either be updated or allowed to expire.


**  End of Warning  **


