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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9310081609.AA19079@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: AURORA WATCH: Low Latitude Auroral Activity Watch
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 8 Oct 93 10:09:25 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 172
Status: RO

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                     LOW LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

                         ISSUED: 14:30 UT, 08 OCTOBER

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MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 10 Oct - 11 Oct (UT days)
   EMPHASIZED PERIOD: 10 Oct

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF LOW LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:  MODERATE

POTENTIAL LUNAR INTERFERENCE:  LOW

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES FOR NEXT 4 DAYS: 20, 60, 35, 23, 15  (09 - 13 OCT)
(INPUT INTO THE AURORA SIMULATION SOFTWARE *)

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM LOW LATITUDES:  FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        SOUTHERN OREGON TO NORTHERN UTAH TO SOUTHERN WYOMING TO NEBRASKA AND
        POSSIBLY PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS TO IOWA TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO
        INDIANA TO OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TO CONNECTICUT.  ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
        TO APPEAR IN BURSTS, PREDOMINANTLY IN THE FORM OF RAYS OR LOW-HORIZON
        ACTIVITY.

        AREAS NORTH OF A LINE APPROXIMATELY FROM NORTHERN FRANCE TO NORTHERN
        GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA COULD ALSO SPOT
        ACTIVITY.

        AREAS OF SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA AND SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND SHOULD ALSO BE
        ABLE TO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.


* Contact: Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA or COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu for more information
           regarding the Auroral Activity Prediction and Simulation Software.


SYNOPSIS...

     A large and recurrent solar coronal hole is expected to produce a
     high-speed solar wind stream that will sweep past the Earth from
     approximately 10 to 12 October.  This same disturbance produced a major
     auroral storm last month.  Analysis of the coronal hole shows that it
     has expanded in area toward the solar equatorial regions, suggesting the
     disturbance may last a bit longer than was observed last month.
     Confidence levels are fairly high that this disturbance will be about as
     severe as was observed last month.  Periods of intense auroral activity
     are expected to accompany this disturbance, with moderate levels of
     activity possibly observable from the low latitude regions (below
     approximately 40 degrees geographic latitude over North America).  The
     waning moon will not significantly hamper attempts to view activity,
     particularly prior to approximately 1:30 am local time when the moon
     should begin rising.

     For those with our Auroral Oval Simulation Software, optimal input
     values of between 40 and 60 should be used on 10 October.  Use the
     Internet command: "finger aurora@xi.uleth.ca" to obtain current forecast
     values and synoptical information.

     This warning will remain active until 19:00 UT on 12 October when it
     will either be updated or allowed to expire.


**  End of Watch  **


