From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Sat Sep  4 06:24:33 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA06085
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Sat, 4 Sep 1993 06:24:32 +0300
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA14030; Sat, 4 Sep 1993 06:13:10 +0300
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA14014; Sat, 4 Sep 1993 06:12:41 +0300
Return-Path: <oler@rho.uleth.ca>
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
 id AA17981; Fri, 3 Sep 93 21:12:27 -0600
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9309040312.AA17981@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 31 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 3 Sep 93 21:12:23 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 985
Status: RO

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 31 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 31 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 243, 08/31/93
10.7 FLUX=089.0  90-AVG=100        SSN=050      BKI=1110 0002  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=A9.4     FLU1=4.2E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2111 2112  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=009,007,005,003,003,004,004,010   DEV-AVG=005 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B3.2   @ 1237UT    XRAY-MIN= A7.3   @ 0750UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.2
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1815UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2235UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1745UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2245UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55369NT @ 1318UT   BOUTF-MIN=55334NT @ 1659UT  BOUTF-AVG=55357NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+088,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+122NT@ 0530UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-061NT@ 1805UT  G6-AVG=+103,+011,-043
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,090;SESC:090,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,015/015,025,015
    KFCST=2244 5222 2244 5222  27DAY-AP=016,024   27DAY-KP=2233 4434 5544 3232
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 30 AUG 93 was  53.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 30 AUG 93 are: 2- 2- 3- 1o   1+ 2o 1+ 2+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Surging heralded the arrival
       of newly assigned Region 7576 (N12E78) earlier today. Surging
       also occurred at the southwest limb.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active. A lobe of the north polar
       crown coronal hole, visible in x-ray imagery, is near W30 at
       this time.

            Event probabilities 01 sep-03 sep

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 01 sep-03 sep

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/30
                        Minor Storm           45/45/40
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/15

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/40
                        Minor Storm           40/40/35
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/15/10

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal to above-normal
       over all regions.  Improved propagation stability has been
       observed over the last 24 hours due to very quiet geomagnetic
       conditions.  Similar conditions are expected over the next 24
       to 48 hours.  There is still a chance the well-placed coronal
       hole noted above could prove modestly geoeffective over the
       next several days.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 31/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7568  N08W82  018  0070 CSO  07  007 BETA
7572  N21W24  320  0060 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7573  N07W15  311  0010 HRX  01  001 ALPHA
7576  N12E78  218  0050 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7570  S11W56  352                    PLAGE
7574  S11W77  013                    PLAGE
7575  S08E14  282                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 01 SEPTEMBER TO 03 SEPTEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7567 S16   172


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 31 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 31 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


