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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 30 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 3 Sep 93 20:31:39 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 30 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 30 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 242, 08/30/93
10.7 FLUX=089.0  90-AVG=100        SSN=059      BKI=1221 0002  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=A8.1     FLU1=2.5E+05  FLU10=1.7E+04  PKI=2231 1212  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=008,011,017,007,004,002,003,015   DEV-AVG=008 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B1.8   @ 2359UT    XRAY-MIN= A5.2   @ 0717UT   XRAY-AVG= A9.1
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1610UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2035UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1405UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 2215UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55373NT @ 2319UT   BOUTF-MIN=55339NT @ 1634UT  BOUTF-AVG=55359NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+081,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+115NT@ 0529UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-066NT@ 1738UT  G6-AVG=+097,+011,-046
 FLUXFCST=STD:085,085,080;SESC:085,085,080 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,015/020,025,025
    KFCST=2234 5322 2244 5222  27DAY-AP=004,016   27DAY-KP=1101 1222 2233 4434
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 29 AUG 93 was  58.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 29 AUG 93 are: 3o 3- 3o 2o   2+ 2- 2- 3- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity persists at the very low level. The
       highlight of the day was the emergence of newly numbered Region
       7575 (S08E31), a diminutive bipole.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low.

            The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels the
       duration of the interval. Episodes of minor storm conditions
       may occur during local nighttimes. A wide swath of the north
       polar crown coronal hole is soon to be in a good location for
       increased geomagnetic activity.

            Event probabilities 31 aug-02 sep

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 31 aug-02 sep

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/15
                        Minor Storm           40/40/45
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/40/25
                        Minor Storm           30/30/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    20/20/05

            HF propagation conditions continue to be near-normal over
       all regions.  Minor signal degradation associated with a well
       placed extension of the northern polar coronal crown has not
       yet materialized.  If and when it does, minor signal
       degradation can be expected over the high and polar latitude
       regions.  Otherwise, near-normal propagation should persist.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 30/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7568  N08W68  017  0060 CSO  07  010 BETA
7572  N21W11  320  0060 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7573  N07W00  309  0020 CRO  04  003 BETA
7575  S08E31  278  0020 CRO  02  005 BETA
7570  S11W43  352                    PLAGE
7574  S11W64  013                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 31 AUGUST TO 02 SEPTEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 30 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 30 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 30/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


