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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 29 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 3 Sep 93 19:26:05 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 29 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 29 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 241, 08/29/93
10.7 FLUX=090    90-AVG=101        SSN=064      BKI=3332 2212  BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=A7.1     FLU1=1.6E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=3332 2223  PAI=010
  BOU-DEV=021,027,028,010,017,010,005,019   DEV-AVG=017 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B1.7   @ 0946UT    XRAY-MIN= A5.0   @ 0721UT   XRAY-AVG= A8.6
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2315UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2200UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1415UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2335UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55373NT @ 1419UT   BOUTF-MIN=55342NT @ 1717UT  BOUTF-AVG=55359NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+072,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+110NT@ 1502UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-078NT@ 0028UT  G6-AVG=+090,+012,-053
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,085,085;SESC:090,085,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,015/015,020,025
    KFCST=2234 4332 2234 5444  27DAY-AP=006,004   27DAY-KP=3121 1222 1101 1222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 28 AUG 93 was  67.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 28 AUG 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity remained very low. Little of significance
       was reported from the four spot groups on the visible disk.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low throughout the period.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be generally unsettled the next 24-36 hours. A
       northern polar crown coronal hole should bring unsettled to
       active conditions the latter half of the interval.

            Event probabilities 30 aug-01 sep

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 30 aug-01 sep

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/25/25
                        Minor Storm           05/40/40
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/10/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/40/30
                        Minor Storm           15/30/40
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/15/15

            HF propagation conditions continue to be near-normal over
       all regions.  Similar conditions are expected to persist over
       the next 3 days.  There is a chance high latitude regions could
       see periods of minor signal degradation due to anticipated
       enhancements in geomagnetic activity from a well placed
       excursion of the northern polar coronal hole.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7566  S09W85  047  0040 HAX  02  002 ALPHA
7568  N09W55  017  0060 DAO  08  014 BETA
7572  N21E03  319  0050 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7573  N06E12  310  0020 CRO  06  007 BETA
7570  S11W30  352                    PLAGE
7574  S11W51  013                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 30 AUGUST TO 01 SEPTEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 29 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 29 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


