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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 27 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 1 Sep 93 22:48:24 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 27 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 27 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 239, 08/27/93
10.7 FLUX=087.6  90-AVG=102        SSN=059      BKI=1133 3533  BAI=016
BGND-XRAY=A6.4     FLU1=9.1E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=2023 4543  PAI=017
  BOU-DEV=000,005,023,033,023,083,029,021   DEV-AVG=027 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B1.0   @ 0607UT    XRAY-MIN= A6.1   @ 2234UT   XRAY-AVG= A6.9
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1705UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2110UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1755UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 0700UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55371NT @ 2359UT   BOUTF-MIN=55291NT @ 1647UT  BOUTF-AVG=55352NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+073,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+156NT@ 1656UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-103NT@ 2143UT  G6-AVG=+093,+004,-050
 FLUXFCST=STD:085,085,085;SESC:085,085,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/020,015,015
    KFCST=2223 3112 3335 5223  27DAY-AP=006,004   27DAY-KP=2311 2222 1101 2222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 26 AUG 93 was  65.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 26 AUG 93 are: 2- 1- 1o 2-   1+ 2- 2o 3o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. All active regions
       on the disk remain stable. Limb x-ray imagery indicates the
       return of Region 7562 (N09E90, 1 M-flare last rotation) should
       be uneventful.

            Solar activity forecast:  very low levels are expected.

            The geomagnetic field has been at minor storm levels at mid-
       latitudes and severe storm levels at some high latitude stations
       for the past six hours. GOES-6 recorded magnetopause crossings
       from 27/1630-1700Z. The cause of this disturbance may have been
       a disappearing filament. A coronal hole may have contributed
       to this disturbance as well.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days.
       Brief periods of minor storm levels may occur during the next 12
       hours due to substorms.

            Event probabilities 28 aug-30 aug

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 28 aug-30 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/15
                        Minor Storm           15/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/40/30
                        Minor Storm           25/25/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal until about mid-day
       when high latitude geomagnetic and auroral storm activity
       resulted in degraded conditions between approximately 12:00 UTC
       and 18:00 UTC.  Degradation was mostly in the form of fading,
       multipathing, and absorption.  Conditions improved by the end
       of the UT day.  Similar conditions are expected over the next
       24 hours.  Transpolar and transauroral circuits should see
       improvements on 29 and 30 August.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7566  S08W58  046  0100 CSO  03  003 BETA
7568  N09W27  015  0040 CSO  06  011 BETA
7572  N21E28  320  0060 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7573  N07E41  307  0040 CSO  07  004 BETA
7570  S11W04  352                    PLAGE
7574  S11W25  013                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 28 AUGUST TO 30 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7558 N12   247
7562 N09   256


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 27 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 27 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
26/2028             27/1145     N21E33     DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


