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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 26 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 93 23:44:31 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 26 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 26 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: These daily summary reports will be temporarily suspended until
      approximately 01 or 02 September.  Missing reports will be
      distributed at that time.  We apologize for this inconvenience.

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 238, 08/26/93
10.7 FLUX=088.3  90-AVG=102        SSN=069      BKI=1022 1222  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=A6.2     FLU1=2.7E+06  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2112 1223  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=009,004,010,011,009,012,015,016   DEV-AVG=011 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B2.3   @ 1039UT    XRAY-MIN= A5.8   @ 0640UT   XRAY-AVG= A6.9
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 0935UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1705UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1900UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2355UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55365NT @ 1337UT   BOUTF-MIN=55332NT @ 1741UT  BOUTF-AVG=55355NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+085,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+132NT@ 1645UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-062NT@ 1644UT  G6-AVG=+102,+002,-040
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,095;SESC:090,090,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,015/007,007,015
    KFCST=2323 4222 2213 4222  27DAY-AP=006,006   27DAY-KP=3211 2122 2311 2222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 25 AUG 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 25 AUG 93 are: 2o 0+ 0+ 2-   1o 1+ 1o 1- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. X-ray imagery suggests a
       large northern coronal hole may be rotating across the east
       limb. One new region was assigned: Region 7574 (S11W12).

       STD: The large north-eastern limb coronal hole is confirmed by
       x-ray imagery and Fe XIV coronal limb emission observations by
       the National Solar Observatory.  Fe XIV limb emission data
       shows that a fairly deep extension of the northern polar
       coronal hole has been rotating into view since approximately 23
       August. The maximum extension appears to very nearly reach the
       solar equatorial region.  Weaker Fe XIV emissions have been
       observed with this coronal feature for at least the last 2 to 3
       solar rotations.  Likewise, Yohkoh x-ray imagery confirms the
       existence of weaker emissions and a northern polar coronal hole
       extension for at least the last 3 solar rotations.  However,
       the equatorward extension of the hole appears to have increased
       since its last rotation.

       STD: X-ray imagery also shows a narrow finger of the southern
       polar coronal hole protruding to the lower middle solar
       latitudes. This feature is now crossing the central meridian
       and should be in a relatively geoeffective position by about
       29 or 30 August.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet for the next 48-hours. A southern
       coronal hole is expected to disturb the magnetic field to
       unsettled-to-active levels on day three.

            Event probabilities 27 aug-29 aug

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 27 aug-29 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                05/10/20
                        Minor Storm           01/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/15/30
                        Minor Storm           05/10/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar good propagation conditions should persist on 27 and 28
       August.  On 29 or 30 August, a coronal hole related disturbance
       could mildly degrade transpolar and transauroral circuits.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7566  S10W44  046  0120 CSO  05  003 BETA
7568  N09W13  015  0030 CRO  07  007 BETA
7572  N21E41  321  0080 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7573  N08E55  307  0060 DSO  08  004 BETA
7574  S11W12  014  0000 AXX  02  004 ALPHA
7570  S11E09  353                    PLAGE
7571  S18W84  086                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 27 AUGUST TO 29 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7558 N12   247
7562 N09   256


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 26 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 26 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


