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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 24 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 24 Aug 93 20:57:17 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 24 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 24 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 236, 08/24/93
10.7 FLUX=090.6  90-AVG=103        SSN=079      BKI=0113 1011  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=A7.7     FLU1=2.9E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=1113 2112  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=002,006,007,021,008,004,008,006   DEV-AVG=007 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B1.6   @ 0502UT    XRAY-MIN= A7.0   @ 1838UT   XRAY-AVG= A8.9
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2110UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1630UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1725UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2255UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55369NT @ 1325UT   BOUTF-MIN=55339NT @ 1659UT  BOUTF-AVG=55360NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+086,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+123NT@ 1807UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-062NT@ 1849UT  G6-AVG=+104,-001,-044
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,095;SESC:095,095,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,020,015/012,015,015
    KFCST=3233 3232 2223 3223  27DAY-AP=005,013   27DAY-KP=2221 1122 2123 3343
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 23 AUG 93 was  50.9.
      The Full Kp Indices for 23 AUG 93 are: 3- 1o 1o 1o   1o 2- 1+ 1+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. There were two regions
       numbered, Region 7571 (S17W57) and Region 7572 (N21E67).

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       at very low levels.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at mostly quiet levels. During the 26th and 27th
       of August the field is expected to be at active levels, due to
       a southern coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 25 aug-27 aug

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 25 aug-27 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/40/35
                        Minor Storm           10/20/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/10/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/45/40
                        Minor Storm           15/25/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    00/15/10

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       No significant changes are expected over the next three days.
       Normal propagation should persist through 27 August inclusive.
       There is only a slight chance high and polar latitude paths may
       see minor signal degradation on 26 and/or 27 August.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 24/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7565  S10W75  103  0060 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7566  S08W17  045  0160 CAO  05  008 BETA
7568  N10E17  011  0050 ESO  11  004 BETA
7570  S11E35  353  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7571  S17W57  085  0010 BXO  04  004 BETA
7572  N21E67  321  0070 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7569  S11W66  094                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 25 AUGUST TO 27 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7564 N09   273


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 24 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 24 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 24/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


