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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 23 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 23 Aug 93 22:03:52 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 23 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 23 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 235, 08/23/93
10.7 FLUX=092.8  90-AVG=103        SSN=053      BKI=2110 0210  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=A7.5     FLU1=3.3E+06  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=3111 1211  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=013,009,005,004,003,010,006,002   DEV-AVG=006 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B3.1   @ 1406UT    XRAY-MIN= A7.1   @ 0122UT   XRAY-AVG= A9.5
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 0145UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1010UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.8%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1650UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 0225UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55370NT @ 1400UT   BOUTF-MIN=55341NT @ 1746UT  BOUTF-AVG=55360NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+084,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+124NT@ 0524UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-064NT@ 1810UT  G6-AVG=+102,-003,-043
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,090;SESC:095,095,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,010/007,007,010
    KFCST=2223 2112 2223 2111  27DAY-AP=008,005   27DAY-KP=2112 2332 2221 1122
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0722-0917UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 22 AUG 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 22 AUG 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. There was a disappearing
       filament with an area of 17 degrees from position (S27E01).

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet.

            Event probabilities 24 aug-26 aug

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 24 aug-26 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/20
                        Minor Storm           05/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/20
                        Minor Storm           05/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Estimated average daily global MUFs for 3000 km paths near 48
       degrees geographic latitude are presently about 17 MHz with
       occasional periods of blanketing sporadic E. Similar conditions
       should persist throughout the next 72 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 23/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7565  S10W61  102  0080 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7566  S08W04  045  0160 DAO  04  007 BETA
7568  N09E30  011  0060 DSO  09  004 BETA
7570  S12E48  353  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7569  S11W53  094                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 24 AUGUST TO 26 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7564 N09   273


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 23 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0046 0046 0046                          110



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 23 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
23/A0020             B1355       S27E01   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 23/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
30   N18W47 N03W58 N07W64 N23W51  098  ISO   NEG   004 10830A
31   S54E87 S59E35 S23W11 S23W11  005  ISO   NEG   044 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


