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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 22 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 23 Aug 93 10:42:50 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 22 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 22 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 234, 08/22/93
10.7 FLUX=094.0  90-AVG=103        SSN=065      BKI=0222 1112  BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=A6.8     FLU1=3.1E+06  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=1223 1122  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=004,012,010,017,008,007,007,012   DEV-AVG=009 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B1.3   @ 0842UT    XRAY-MIN= A6.3   @ 1336UT   XRAY-AVG= A8.6
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1945UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0615UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.6%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1450UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2345UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55373NT @ 1322UT   BOUTF-MIN=55341NT @ 1735UT  BOUTF-AVG=55360NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+079,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+117NT@ 1836UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-067NT@ 1625UT  G6-AVG=+097,-005,-046
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,090,090;SESC:095,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,015/015,015,015
    KFCST=3334 4322 2234 3322  27DAY-AP=005,008   27DAY-KP=2211 1211 2112 2332
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**245STRM:1847-2219UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 21 AUG 93 was  47.2.
      The Full Kp Indices for 21 AUG 93 are: 2- 2- 3- 3-   2- 2- 2- 1+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. A single B-class x-ray
       burst occurred. Regions 7569 (S11W40) and 7570 (S11E62) were
       assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past
       24 hours. Substorming was observed at some high latitude
       stations near 22/1200Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled.

            Event probabilities 23 aug-25 aug

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 23 aug-25 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions continued near-normal over all
       regions today.  Similar conditions are expected over the next
       three days, through 25 August inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7565  S11W49  104  0070 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7566  S08E10  045  0160 CSO  05  009 BETA
7568  N10E45  010  0060 CSO  07  003 BETA
7569  S11W40  095  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7570  S11E62  353  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7563  S03W85  140                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 23 AUGUST TO 25 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 22 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 22 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
30   N10W38 N07W43 N10W46 N15W42  097  ISO   NEG   001 10830A
31   S70E86 S78E86 S35E13 S35E13  359  EXT   NEG   051 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


