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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 21 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 21 Aug 93 23:39:25 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 21 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 21 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 233, 08/21/93
10.7 FLUX=094.8  90-AVG=104        SSN=043      BKI=0232 2101  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=A7.9     FLU1=2.1E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=2233 2221  PAI=007
  BOU-DEV=004,011,030,010,014,008,004,006   DEV-AVG=010 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B8.9   @ 1544UT    XRAY-MIN= A6.8   @ 1024UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.3
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1810UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2210UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1615UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2340UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55372NT @ 1349UT   BOUTF-MIN=55331NT @ 1853UT  BOUTF-AVG=55356NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+080,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+120NT@ 0521UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-066NT@ 1640UT  G6-AVG=+102,-006,-050
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,090;SESC:095,095,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,010/010,015,010
    KFCST=2233 4332 3334 4322  27DAY-AP=006,005   27DAY-KP=2221 1212 2211 1211
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 20 AUG 93 was  47.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 20 AUG 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 7566 (S08E23)
       produced a B8/SF flare at 21/1544Z. Several optically
       uncorrelated B-class x-ray bursts occurred as well. New Region
       7568 (N10E58) emerged and showed gradual growth during the day.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Region 7566 could produce an isolated C-class
       subflare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours. Active levels occurred at some high
       latitude stations near mid-period.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at mostly unsettled levels. A weak, though
       favorably positioned coronal hole, could cause brief periods
       of active levels as well.

            Event probabilities 22 aug-24 aug

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 22 aug-24 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/30
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Similar conditions should persist for the next 72
       hours.  The anticipated weak enhancement in geomagnetic
       activity for 23 August should not produce any significant
       signal degradation, although minor degradation may be observed
       for transpolar and/or transauroral paths.  Otherwise,
       near-normal propagation should continue through at least
       24 August.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7565  S10W36  104  0080 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7566  S08E23  045  0190 CSO  05  008 BETA
7568  N10E58  010  0040 CRO  06  004 BETA
7563  S03W72  140                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 22 AUGUST TO 24 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 21 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0429 0435 0437              B2.3        140



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 21 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
30   N19W22 N05W28 N10W34 N21W24  095  ISO   NEG   003 10830A
31   S54E86 S54E86 S34E30 S34E30  356  ISO   NEG   004 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


