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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 20 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 20 Aug 93 22:37:27 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 20 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 20 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 232, 08/20/93
10.7 FLUX=091.6  90-AVG=104        SSN=027      BKI=3233 1221  BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=A7.1     FLU1=1.5E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=3233 1221  PAI=007
  BOU-DEV=004,015,021,036,005,013,015,1928   DEV-AVG=254 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B1.6   @ 0415UT    XRAY-MIN= A5.5   @ 1944UT   XRAY-AVG= A8.9
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 0650UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1525UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1210UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1155UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55372NT @ 1402UT   BOUTF-MIN=55332NT @ 1725UT  BOUTF-AVG=55359NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+081,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+123NT@ 0519UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-070NT@ 1932UT  G6-AVG=+100,-009,-049
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,085;SESC:090,090,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,010,015/007,010,015
    KFCST=2223 3222 2234 4332  27DAY-AP=005,006   27DAY-KP=1112 1221 2221 1212
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 19 AUG 93 was  47.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 19 AUG 93 are: 4- 3o 3o 3o   2o 2- 3- 3- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Two B-class x-ray bursts
       occurred. All sunspot regions were quiet and stable.  No new
       regions were assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours. A brief period of substorming occurred
       at some high latitude stations near 20/0900Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet during the first day. Mostly unsettled
       levels are expected for the rest of the period.

            Event probabilities 21 aug-23 aug

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 21 aug-23 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/25/25
                        Minor Storm           05/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/30/30
                        Minor Storm           05/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar near-normal propagation should continue for the next 48
       hours, through 22 August.  On 23 August, minor signal
       degradation is expected to be slightly enhanced for transpolar
       and transauroral paths.  Most other middle and low latitude
       paths should continue to see normal propagation.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7565  S10W23  104  0090 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7566  S08E37  044  0160 CSO  08  006 BETA
7563  S03W59  140                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 21 AUGUST TO 23 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 20 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 20 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


