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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 19 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 20 Aug 93 19:06:08 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 19 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 19 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 231, 08/19/93
10.7 FLUX=091.7  90-AVG=104        SSN=043      BKI=4333 1232  BAI=013
BGND-XRAY=A7.6     FLU1=1.2E+06  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=4333 2233  PAI=013
  BOU-DEV=048,025,035,034,008,012,021,018   DEV-AVG=025 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B6.2   @ 0820UT    XRAY-MIN= A5.4   @ 2041UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1105UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 0735UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1415UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 0125UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55376NT @ 2224UT   BOUTF-MIN=55325NT @ 1711UT  BOUTF-AVG=55355NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+074,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+114NT@ 0452UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-071NT@ 2058UT  G6-AVG=+096,-012,-051
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,090;SESC:090,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,005,010/010,007,007
    KFCST=2233 4322 2223 3222  27DAY-AP=007,005   27DAY-KP=3221 2112 1112 1221
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 18 AUG 93 was  41.5.
      The Full Kp Indices for 18 AUG 93 are: 3o 4- 4- 4o   4- 3o 3- 3- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Two B-class x-ray bursts
       occurred, one of which was associated with a subflare from
       Region 7566 (S09E50). Minor growth was observed within this
       region. No new regions were assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Region 7566 provides a fair chance for a
       C-class subflare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours. A few isolated active periods were
       reported.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

            Event probabilities 20 aug-22 aug

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 20 aug-22 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/10/25
                        Minor Storm           10/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/30
                        Minor Storm           05/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Normal propagation is expected to persist for at least the next
       72 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7563  S03W46  140  0010 BXO  07  004 BETA
7565  S10W10  104  0090 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7566  S09E50  044  0210 DSO  09  008 BETA
7560  N17W82  176                    PLAGE
7567  S16W78  172                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 20 AUGUST TO 22 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 19 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 19 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
29   S22W42 S22W42 N09W90 N09W90  172  ISO   POS   022 10830A
30   N13E04 N13E04 N15W07 N24E02  096  ISO   NEG   001 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


