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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 18 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 18 Aug 93 20:50:41 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 18 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 18 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 230, 08/18/93
10.7 FLUX=092.1  90-AVG=103        SSN=051      BKI=3444 4322  BAI=019
BGND-XRAY=A9.6     FLU1=1.5E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=3444 4333  PAI=018
  BOU-DEV=023,047,050,047,046,035,017,015   DEV-AVG=035 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B5.5   @ 1349UT    XRAY-MIN= A7.5   @ 2129UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.3
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2150UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1445UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1805UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 0055UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55372NT @ 0430UT   BOUTF-MIN=55326NT @ 1714UT  BOUTF-AVG=55353NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+075,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+126NT@ 0456UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-073NT@ 1953UT  G6-AVG=+092,-018,-053
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,090;SESC:090,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/010,010,010
    KFCST=2223 2211 2223 2211  27DAY-AP=012,007   27DAY-KP=3334 3232 3221 2112
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 17 AUG 93 was  22.9.
      The Full Kp Indices for 17 AUG 93 are: 7- 6+ 5- 2-   2- 2+ 2o 2+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Four optically uncorrelated
       B-class x-ray bursts occurred. Region 7566 (S08E62) showed
       minor growth. New Region 7567 (S16W65) was numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Region 7566 provides a fair chance for a
       C-class subflare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels
       for the past 24 hours. The active levels began near 18/0600Z
       and declined to mostly quiet levels by the end of the period.
       Minor to major storm levels were reported at some high
       latitude stations. This activity was most likely due to
       coronal hole effects.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

            Event probabilities 19 aug-21 aug

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 19 aug-21 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions returned to near-normal over
       most regions today.  Additional minor improvements in
       propagation are expected over the next three days.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7563  S03W33  140  0010 BXO  04  005 BETA
7565  S10E03  104  0080 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7566  S08E62  045  0170 CSO  10  004 BETA
7567  S16W65  172  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7560  N17W69  176                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 19 AUGUST TO 21 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 18 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 18 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
29   S25W19 S25W19 S10W84 S01W56  162  ISO   POS   020 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


