From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Wed Aug 18 09:19:03 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA26495
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Wed, 18 Aug 1993 09:18:58 +0300
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA00807; Wed, 18 Aug 1993 09:18:33 +0300
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA00725; Wed, 18 Aug 1993 09:17:03 +0300
Return-Path: <oler@rho.uleth.ca>
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
 id AA02550; Wed, 18 Aug 93 00:16:26 -0600
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9308180616.AA02550@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 17 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 18 Aug 93 0:16:19 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 955
Status: OR

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 17 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 17 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 229, 08/17/93
10.7 FLUX=092.8  90-AVG=103        SSN=035      BKI=6741 2121  BAI=033
BGND-XRAY=A9.6     FLU1=3.3E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=7652 2222  PAI=035
  BOU-DEV=124,208,049,006,014,008,015,009   DEV-AVG=054 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.7   @ 1550UT    XRAY-MIN= A6.8   @ 0434UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.4
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2210UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 0820UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.8%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1610UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 0030UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55434NT @ 0010UT   BOUTF-MIN=55332NT @ 0444UT  BOUTF-AVG=55360NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+076,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+122NT@ 1714UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-3052NT@ 0940UT  G6-AVG=+096,-022,-065
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,095;SESC:095,095,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,005,005/020,010,010
    KFCST=2225 5112 2224 4112  27DAY-AP=014,012   27DAY-KP=3433 3233 3334 3232
 WARNINGS=*AURMIDWCH
   ALERTS=**MINSTRM:NOW-ENDED
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 16 AUG 93 was  40.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 16 AUG 93 are: 5o 5+ 7o 6+   6- 4+ 5o 5+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Two small C1 flares occurred at
       17/1550Z and 17/2030Z but were not correlated to optical
       flares. New Region 7566 (S08E73) rotated into view as a single
       H-type sunspot.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low.

            The geomagnetic field was at storm levels at most stations
       until 17/0900Z. The field has since been quiet. This disturbance
       is most likely associated with a coronal hole.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled. Some active conditions are
       possible at high latitudes.

            Event probabilities 18 aug-20 aug

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 18 aug-20 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were well below normal over most
       regions, particularly for the middle to polar latitude paths.
       Significant degradation in the form of strong auroral
       absorption, fading, and multipathing resulted in near-useless
       propagation for transpolar and transauroral circuits until
       after approximately 15:00 UTC.  Thereafter the disturbance
       rapidly stabilized, allowing for a measure of recovery to take
       place.  By the end of the UT day, the low and middle latitude
       regions had returned to near-normal propagation.  High and
       polar latitude regions observed below-normal (although
       improving) conditions.  Improvements to near-normal values are
       expected on 18 and 19 August over all regions.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7563  S02W17  138  0010 HRX  02  003 ALPHA
7565  S10E15  106  0080 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7566  S08E73  048  0090 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7560  N17W56  177                    PLAGE
7561  N12W80  201                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 18 AUGUST TO 20 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7553 S12   030
7552 N16   020


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 17 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 17 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
17/A0915             B2300       S03E11   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
29   S18W11 S22W13 N08W72 N23W52  173  ISO   POS   023 10830A
30   N32E44 N06E26 N06E15 N34E40  093  ISO   NEG   007 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


