From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Tue Aug 17 07:51:22 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA13959
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Tue, 17 Aug 1993 07:51:14 +0300
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA12674; Tue, 17 Aug 1993 07:50:43 +0300
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA12574; Tue, 17 Aug 1993 07:49:49 +0300
Return-Path: <oler@rho.uleth.ca>
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
 id AA27442; Mon, 16 Aug 93 22:49:11 -0600
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9308170449.AA27442@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 16 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 16 Aug 93 22:49:06 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 953
Status: OR

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 16 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 16 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 228, 08/16/93
10.7 FLUX=090.1  90-AVG=103        SSN=028      BKI=5554 4444  BAI=034
BGND-XRAY=B1.4     FLU1=6.4E+06  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=5576 6455  PAI=066
  BOU-DEV=073,101,076,051,064,054,044,054   DEV-AVG=064 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B4.6   @ 1201UT    XRAY-MIN= A9.9   @ 2322UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.9
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1120UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2245UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1725UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2340UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55411NT @ 2239UT   BOUTF-MIN=55293NT @ 0851UT  BOUTF-AVG=55350NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+072,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+161NT@ 1448UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-120NT@ 2341UT  G6-AVG=+093,-032,-069
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,095;SESC:090,090,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,010/030,020,010
    KFCST=4446 6333 3335 5112  27DAY-AP=015,014   27DAY-KP=1234 2344 3433 3233
 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN
   ALERTS=**MINSTRM
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 15 AUG 93 was  67.3.
      The Full Kp Indices for 15 AUG 93 are: 1o 0+ 1o 1o   2+ 3o 3o 5- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Only a few small B-class
       flares occurred since yesterday, all of them optically
       uncorrelated. Region 7563 (S02W07) is the most interesting
       region on the disk. It is a small, decaying sunspot group.

       STD: An optically uncorrelated long-duration class B4.3 flare
       was observed at 16/0758Z.  The signature of this flare is
       consistent with activity just beyond a limb.  Recent x-ray
       imagery suggests the source of this activity may be approaching
       the east limb.  Old Region 7553 is due to rotate back into view
       within the next day or two.  This region has a proven history
       of longevity and has shown regenerative abilities for the last
       two solar rotations.  The same area has been numbered as
       Regions 7518 and 7530 on previous rotations.  In both cases, it
       has been a major center of activity.  Although it departed the
       west limb in a weakened and decaying state, there is sufficient
       reason to suggest that this area may have regenerated on the
       far side of the sun to a state that might be capable of at
       least C-class flares when (and if) it rotates back into view.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low. Yohkoh imagery suggests that a new active region is
       approaching the east limb near the equator.

            The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels at
       middle latitudes and active to severe storm levels at high
       latitudes. This activity is thought to be associated with a
       coronal hole.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at active to storm levels for the next day,
       becoming quiet to unsettled by 19 august.

            Event probabilities 17 aug-19 aug

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 17 aug-19 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/35/10
                        Minor Storm           15/15/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                45/45/15
                        Minor Storm           25/25/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/01

            HF propagation conditions have been well below normal from
       the polar to middle latitude paths.  Moderate to strong
       geomagnetic and auroral storm activity has degraded propagation
       significantly.  Middle and high latitude paths have observed
       very poor to occasionally near useless propagation,
       particularly on transauroral circuits where auroral absorption,
       multipathing, and heavy fading has occurred.  Many stations
       have also reported degradation due to blanketing sporadic E.
       MUFs are depressed between 20 and 40 percent over most middle
       and high latitude regions.  Similar conditions are expected
       over the next 24 hours.  Some minor improvements might be
       observed on 18 August, although most of the ionospheric
       improvements are not expected until 19 August.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7563  S02W07  141  0030 CSO  06  007 BETA
7565  S10E28  106  0130 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7560  N17W43  177                    PLAGE
7561  N12W67  201                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 17 AUGUST TO 19 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7553 S12   030
7552 N16   020


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 16 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 16 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
16/ 0509     0758     0830                LDE    B4.3  201


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
29   S16W04 S22W05 S19W61 N12W54  175  ISO   POS   023 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


