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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 16 Aug 93 9:40:34 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 15 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 227, 08/15/93
10.7 FLUX=090.5  90-AVG=103        SSN=047      BKI=1001 3324  BAI=008
BGND-XRAY=B1.2     FLU1=8.9E+05  FLU10=1.5E+04  PKI=1011 2335  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=008,003,004,006,021,027,015,067   DEV-AVG=018 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.0   @ 0601UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.1   @ 2359UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.0
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 0105UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2120UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1905UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2355UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55384NT @ 2359UT   BOUTF-MIN=55338NT @ 1649UT  BOUTF-AVG=55360NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+096,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+175NT@ 1814UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-081NT@ 2217UT  G6-AVG=+113,-017,-039
 FLUXFCST=STD:085,085,085;SESC:085,085,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,020,015/025,030,020
    KFCST=3335 5223 3335 5223  27DAY-AP=005,015   27DAY-KP=2212 1122 1234 2344
 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWCH
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 14 AUG 93 was  58.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 14 AUG 93 are: 1o 1o 1- 1-   1+ 2o 2o 1o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7563 (S02E09) remains
       the most significant sunspot group on the disk. This region
       continues to decay and has not produced any observed optical
       flares since yesterday.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet until 15/1200Z. After
       1200Z the field gradually became unsettled at middle latitudes
       and unsettled to active at high latitudes.

       STD: Moderate minor storming is in-progress at the present
       time from the polar to middle latitude regions.  A potential
       geomagnetic storm warning has been issued for the next 24 to 48
       hours along with a Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch.  A
       well-placed coronal hole approximately one day west of the
       central meridian is responsible for this activity.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly active due to a coronal hole. Storm
       conditions are possible at high latitudes.

            Event probabilities 16 aug-18 aug

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 16 aug-18 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/40/35
                        Minor Storm           20/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal to slightly
       below normal for most of the day.  By the end of the UT day,
       conditions had shown minor deterioration due to gradually
       increasing levels of geomagnetic and auroral activity.
       Poor to occasionally very poor conditions are expected over the
       polar and high latitude regions.  Middle latitude paths should
       see good to fair propagation during the daylight hours,
       becoming fair to occasionally poor during the night sectors.
       Low latitude paths are expected to see mostly good propagation
       with possible periods of fair propagation during the local
       night sectors.  This disturbance is expected to begin subsiding
       on 18 August, although propagation may not start showing
       noticable improvements (particularly over the higher latitude
       regions) until 19 August.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7560  N17W30  177  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7563  S02E09  138  0070 DAO  05  015 BETA
7565  S10E41  106  0100 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7561  N12W54  201                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 16 AUGUST TO 18 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7553 S12   030
7552 N16   020


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 15 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1242 1245 1247 7563  S00E26 B1.9  SF    120


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 15 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
13/ 2321           14/1158       S28W20   DSF
15/ 0719     0723     0909                LDE    B3.0  110
15/ 1113     1208     1323                LDE    B6.4  130


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
29   S18E14 S22E02 S12W39 N16W18  168  ISO   POS   023 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


