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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 14 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 15 Aug 93 11:35:07 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 14 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 14 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 226, 08/14/93
10.7 FLUX=092    90-AVG=104        SSN=070      BKI=0000 1101  BAI=001
BGND-XRAY=B1.2     FLU1=5.1E+05  FLU10=1.4E+04  PKI=1111 1221  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=004,003,004,004,006,006,004,006   DEV-AVG=004 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.6   @ 1151UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.0   @ 2353UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.5
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2155UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2240UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.8%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1415UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2330UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55373NT @ 1347UT   BOUTF-MIN=55334NT @ 1736UT  BOUTF-AVG=55361NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+084,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+120NT@ 1745UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-056NT@ 1735UT  G6-AVG=+103,-016,-036
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,085,085;SESC:090,085,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,020,020/015,025,030
    KFCST=2224 4112 3335 5223  27DAY-AP=005,005   27DAY-KP=1122 2222 2212 1122
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 13 AUG 93 was  57.8.
      The Full Kp Indices for 13 AUG 93 are: 1+ 2+ 2o 1+   2- 2- 2- 1o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low due to a single uncorrelated C1.6
       flare at 14/1150Z. Region 7563 (S01E22) remains the most
       interesting sunspot group on the disk. Its largest flare since
       yesterday was a B9/SF at 14/0037Z that was associated with a
       500 sfu radio burst at 245 mhz. This region continues to decay
       slowly.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. C-class flares are possible in Region 7563.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled tomorrow, becoming active
       by 16 August due to a coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 15 aug-17 aug

                             Class M    05/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 15 aug-17 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/30/30
                        Minor Storm           05/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/40/40
                        Minor Storm           05/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/10/10

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Minor signal degradation is expected to begin on 15 August and
       continue through 17 or possibly 18 August in response to a
       well-placed recurrent coronal hole.  This coronal hole has had
       a minor geoeffective impact over at least the last two solar
       rotations. Some middle latitude paths can also expect to see
       some signal degradation during the local night sectors on 16
       and 17 August.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7558  N12W87  247  0080 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7560  N19W16  176  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7561  N12W41  201  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7563  S01E22  138  0120 DAI  08  016 BETA
7565  S10E55  105  0090 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 15 AUGUST TO 17 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7553 S12   030


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 14 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0005 0006 0006                          630
 0032 0037 0039 7563  S02E33 B9.3  SF    500
 1242 1245 1247 7563  S00E26 B1.9  SF    120


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 14 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
29   S25E31 S30E06 S05W19 N12W10  162  ISO   POS   026 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


