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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 13 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 14 Aug 93 17:40:44 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 13 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 13 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 225, 08/13/93
10.7 FLUX=096.7  90-AVG=104        SSN=089      BKI=2222 1111  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B1.4     FLU1=5.8E+05  FLU10=1.8E+04  PKI=1221 2221  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=015,018,016,010,005,007,005,008   DEV-AVG=010 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.8   @ 1244UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.2   @ 0444UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.1
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 1920UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 0705UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.5%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1540UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2355UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55371NT @ 1302UT   BOUTF-MIN=55339NT @ 1727UT  BOUTF-AVG=55361NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+071,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+117NT@ 1734UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-057NT@ 1731UT  G6-AVG=+091,-018,-041
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,095;SESC:095,095,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,010,020/010,012,025
    KFCST=1113 3112 2224 4112  27DAY-AP=004,005   27DAY-KP=1101 1222 1122 2222
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**245STRM:2018-2029UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 12 AUG 93 was  54.3.
      The Full Kp Indices for 12 AUG 93 are: 2- 3o 3o 2o   3- 1+ 2- 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7563 (S01E35) was the
       most active region of the past day, producing two C-class
       flares. The most significant was a C1.8/SF at 13/1243Z that was
       associated with a 5,500 sfu radio burst at 245 MHz. This region
       has decayed since yesterday. New Region 7565 (S09E67) was
       numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Additional C-class flares are expected in Region 7563.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly quiet for the next day, becoming unsettled
       to active by 16 August due to a coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 14 aug-16 aug

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 14 aug-16 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/15/30
                        Minor Storm           05/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/15/45
                        Minor Storm           05/10/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/10

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       One to two more days of near-normal propagation are expected on
       14 to 15 August before propagation begins to become degraded
       due to anticipated enhancements in geomagnetic and auroral
       activity.  High and polar latitude signal paths should see the
       strongest degradation, although effects should be noticable
       into the middle latitude regions during the local night times.
       There is a fair chance this disturbance could produce periods
       of minor to brief major geomagnetic storming over the high and
       polar latitude regions, and periods of active to minor storming
       over the middle latitude regions on 16 or 17 August.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7558  N13W75  248  0110 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7560  N18W05  178  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7561  N12W26  199  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7562  N10W84  257  0180 DAO  08  008 BETA
7563  S01E35  138  0160 DAI  06  015 BETA
7565  S09E67  106  0080 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7557  S18W84  257                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 14 AUGUST TO 16 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 13 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1237 1243 1245 7563  S00E46 C1.8  SF   5500
 1342 1342 1342                          850
 1956 1956 1956                          160
 2048 2057 2106              B4.0        360


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 13 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
29   S30E37 S30E37 N08W07 N15E02  167  ISO   POS   027 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


