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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 12 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 13 Aug 93 18:02:05 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 12 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 12 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 224, 08/12/93
10.7 FLUX=100.5  90-AVG=104        SSN=092      BKI=0332 1112  BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=B1.7     FLU1=9.1E+05  FLU10=2.5E+04  PKI=2332 3122  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=004,028,022,011,007,007,005,010   DEV-AVG=011 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C3.5   @ 2257UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.4   @ 1643UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.1
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2240UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0910UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1725UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2325UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55374NT @ 1351UT   BOUTF-MIN=55343NT @ 1759UT  BOUTF-AVG=55359NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+071,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+115NT@ 1624UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-059NT@ 1740UT  G6-AVG=+095,-017,-043
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,105,110;SESC:105,105,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,010,015/010,010,010
    KFCST=2323 3222 2223 3322  27DAY-AP=003,004   27DAY-KP=1010 1112 1101 1222
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 11 AUG 93 was  44.6.
      The Full Kp Indices for 11 AUG 93 are: 2+ 2- 2- 2o   1o 2- 2- 1+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 7562 (N09W69)
       and 7563 (S01E48) have been the most active regions. Region
       7562 erupted with an C1/SF flare and both regions have
       exhibited growth.

       STD: Protons at greater than 10 MeV are slowly returning to
       background levels.  The source of this weak enhancement is not
       known.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       at low levels. The majority of the activity is expected to be
       coming from Regions 7562 and 7563.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

            Event probabilities 13 aug-15 aug

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 13 aug-15 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/30/30
                        Minor Storm           10/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/30/30
                        Minor Storm           10/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Elevated levels of noise and reports of brief burst-type noise
       were reported over many regions.  The source of this noise may
       have been related to the Perseids meteor shower.  Propagation
       is expected to continue near-normal over all regions over the
       next 48 to 72 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7558  N12W60  247  0110 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7560  N17E06  181  0010 BXO  04  005 BETA
7561  N11W13  200  0010 BXO  04  006 BETA
7562  N09W69  256  0220 DAO  07  015 BETA
7563  S01E48  139  0230 DAI  06  015 BETA
7557  S18W71  258                    PLAGE
7564  N09W86  273                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 13 AUGUST TO 15 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 12 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1719 1725 1737 7558  N12W51 B4.1  SF    280


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 12 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


