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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 11 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 12 Aug 93 1:42:05 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 11 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 11 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 223, 08/11/93
10.7 FLUX=108.3  90-AVG=104        SSN=092      BKI=1221 1110  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=B3.3     FLU1=6.7E+05  FLU10=3.2E+04  PKI=2222 1221  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=005,010,010,007,005,005,005,004   DEV-AVG=006 NT     SWF=01:012
 XRAY-MAX= M1.5   @ 1023UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.3   @ 0327UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2355UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1355UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 1910UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1035UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55371NT @ 1337UT   BOUTF-MIN=55330NT @ 1839UT  BOUTF-AVG=55359NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+072,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+112NT@ 1527UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-060NT@ 1858UT  G6-AVG=+092,-018,-041
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,110,110;SESC:105,110,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,010/010,010,015
    KFCST=3322 2223 3322 2223  27DAY-AP=007,003   27DAY-KP=2321 2223 1010 1112
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.5/SN@1023UTC(7562);**SWEEP:II=2@1023-1041UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 10 AUG 93 was  52.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 10 AUG 93 are: 2- 2- 2- 3o   2- 2o 1+ 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. The largest event was an
       M1.5/SN flare from Region 7562 (N09W56), with an associated Type
       II radio emission detected. Region 7562 is observed having
       reversed polarity by Mt. Wilson observatory. Region 7564 was
       assigned today.

       STD: The P-spot associated with Region 7562 has been identified
       with this inverted-polarity group.  It is expected to begin
       pushing into the leading spot to the west, which could produce
       additional minor M-class flares before this group rotates
       behind the west limb.  Protons at greater than 10 MeV continued
       to increase very slightly during the day, as is evident in the
       elevated proton fluence values.  Protons at greater than 10 MeV
       reached a preliminary maximum near 0.6 pfu at about 11/1330Z.
       The average proton flux hovered around 0.2 to 0.3 pfu.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       at low levels. The majority of any activity is expected to come
       from Regions 7562 and 7563 (S02E62).

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly at quiet levels.

            Event probabilities 12 aug-14 aug

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 12 aug-14 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/30
                        Minor Storm           10/10/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/30
                        Minor Storm           10/10/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar conditions should persist through 13 to 14 August.
       There is a chance for brief SWF activity over sunlit paths due
       to minor solar flare activity.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7558  N12W42  242  0120 CSO  13  003 BETA
7560  N16E21  179  0020 HAX  01  001 ALPHA
7561  N11W00  200  0010 BXO  04  005 BETA
7562  N09W56  256  0160 DAO  06  015 BETA
7563  S02E62  138  0220 DAO  07  005 BETA
7564  N09W73  273  0020 BXO  04  003 BETA
7557  S18W58  258                    PLAGE
7559  S16W80  280                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 12 AUGUST TO 14 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7548 S11   109
7550 S19   105


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 11 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0954 1023 1035 7562  N07W48 M1.5  SN    120        II


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 11 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
11/ 1023              1041       N07W48   RSP    M1.5   41  2


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


