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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 10 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 93 22:08:34 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 10 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 10 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 222, 08/10/93
10.7 FLUX=101.8  90-AVG=104        SSN=082      BKI=1123 2221  BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=B1.8     FLU1=1.4E+06  FLU10=2.4E+04  PKI=2223 2212  PAI=007
  BOU-DEV=008,006,012,025,010,010,013,008   DEV-AVG=011 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C4.6   @ 1911UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.5   @ 0853UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.4
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1105UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 0215UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1910UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55370NT @ 1346UT   BOUTF-MIN=55342NT @ 1655UT  BOUTF-AVG=55362NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+071,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+124NT@ 1558UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-058NT@ 1647UT  G6-AVG=+096,-014,-040
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,100,100;SESC:095,100,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=2223 3232 2233 3222  27DAY-AP=005,007   27DAY-KP=2222 1112 2321 2223
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 09 AUG 93 was  43.5.
      The Full Kp Indices for 09 AUG 93 are: 3o 3- 3o 4-   3- 2- 2+ 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7558 (N11W29) produced a
       C4.6/1N flare, and continues to be the largest and most active
       region on the disk. Region 7563 was assigned to SN63(S00377).

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       at low levels.

       STD: Over the last several days, the background proton flux at
       greater than 10 MeV has increased slightly, resulting in a
       notable increase in proton fluence.  There is no known source
       for this weak enhancement at the present time.  Region 7558 has
       shown a steady increase in flare frequency and magnitude over
       the last 24 hours.  Although the region is still rather simple
       in structure, there may be a slight chance for an isolated weak
       M-class flare if activity persists.

            The geomagnetic field has been mostly at quiet levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

            Event probabilities 11 aug-13 aug

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 11 aug-13 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           05/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Similar conditions should continue throughout the
       next three days, through 13 August.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7558  N11W29  242  0140 ESO  15  009 BETA
7560  N16E34  179  0030 HSX  01  002 ALPHA
7561  N11E14  199  0020 CRO  06  008 BETA
7562  N09W44  257  0060 DAO  05  011 BETA
7563  S02E74  139  0100 DAO  07  002 BETA
7557  S18W45  258                    PLAGE
7559  S16W67  280                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 11 AUGUST TO 13 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7548 S12    106
7550 S20    105


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 10 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1852 1911 1921 7558  N12W26 C4.6  1N    190 29


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 10 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
10/A1855             B1910       N13W23   DSF    C4.6   29


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


