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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 09 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 9 Aug 93 23:56:00 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 09 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 09 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 221, 08/09/93
10.7 FLUX=096.5  90-AVG=104        SSN=088      BKI=3334 1112  BAI=011
BGND-XRAY=B1.5     FLU1=1.2E+06  FLU10=2.1E+04  PKI=3334 3222  PAI=012
  BOU-DEV=025,025,036,060,008,007,006,011   DEV-AVG=022 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B7.8   @ 1958UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.3   @ 0142UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.2
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1930UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 0225UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1940UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1355UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55374NT @ 2220UT   BOUTF-MIN=55340NT @ 1903UT  BOUTF-AVG=55361NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+070,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+119NT@ 1641UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-062NT@ 1639UT  G6-AVG=+090,-022,-047
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,095;SESC:095,095,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=3223 3222 3223 3222  27DAY-AP=010,005   27DAY-KP=2343 3222 2222 1112
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 08 AUG 93 was  56.4.
      The Full Kp Indices for 08 AUG 93 are: 2o 3- 4o 3o   2o 2- 2- 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 7561 (N10E28) was
       assigned to SN61 and Region 7562 (N09W31) was assigned to SN58.
       The largest and most active region continues to be Region 7558
       (N11W16).

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       at very low to low levels.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

            Event probabilities 10 aug-12 aug

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 10 aug-12 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Similar propagation is expected to persist over the
       next 24 to 72 hours, through at least 12 August.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7557  S18W32  258  0010 BXO  04  003 BETA
7558  N11W16  242  0200 ESO  15  016 BETA
7560  N15E49  177  0040 DAO  05  006 BETA
7561  N10E28  198  0050 DAO  06  009 BETA
7562  N09W31  257  0020 CRO  03  004 BETA
7559  S16W54  280                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 10 AUGUST TO 12 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7548 S12   106
7550 S20   105


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 09 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0725 0728 0731              B3.5        470 53
 1723 1725 1726                          340


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 09 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


