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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 08 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 9 Aug 93 19:17:20 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 08 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 08 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 220, 08/08/93
10.7 FLUX=091    90-AVG=105        SSN=036      BKI=2343 2202  BAI=010
BGND-XRAY=B1.2     FLU1=7.6E+05  FLU10=1.6E+04  PKI=2343 2222  PAI=010
  BOU-DEV=013,024,042,030,010,015,004,010   DEV-AVG=018 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B5.5   @ 1337UT    XRAY-MIN= A9.6   @ 2018UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.5
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2245UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1025UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2210UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2310UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55376NT @ 0013UT   BOUTF-MIN=55340NT @ 1857UT  BOUTF-AVG=55359NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+072,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+110NT@ 1654UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-065NT@ 1827UT  G6-AVG=+093,-022,-049
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,085,085;SESC:090,085,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,005/010,010,010
    KFCST=1223 4332 1123 4221  27DAY-AP=010,010   27DAY-KP=3243 2222 2343 3222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 07 AUG 93 was  59.7.
      The Full Kp Indices for 07 AUG 93 are: 3o 4o 4o 4+   3o 2o 2+ 3o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest
       region on the disk is Region 7558 (N12W02). There were no
       significant events within the last 24 hour period.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       at very low to low levels.

            The geomagnetic field has been mostly at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours. There was one period of active
       levels observed at 08/0900UT.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

            Event probabilities 09 aug-11 aug

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 09 aug-11 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/15/15
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       No significant changes are expected over the next three days,
       through 11 August inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7558  N12W02  242  0180 ESO  15  015 BETA
7560  N17E61  179  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7557  S18W17  257                    PLAGE
7559  S16W41  281                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 09 AUGUST TO 11 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 08 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 08 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


