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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 07 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 7 Aug 93 21:18:52 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 07 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 07 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 219, 08/07/93
10.7 FLUX=091    90-AVG=105        SSN=062      BKI=2334 3113  BAI=012
BGND-XRAY=A9.8     FLU1=3.6E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=3444 3223  PAI=018
  BOU-DEV=010,038,036,060,023,008,009,027   DEV-AVG=026 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B5.5   @ 2338UT    XRAY-MIN= A9.0   @ 1912UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2235UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2350UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1830UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2345UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55377NT @ 2349UT   BOUTF-MIN=55347NT @ 1844UT  BOUTF-AVG=55360NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+065,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+107NT@ 1525UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-082NT@ 0356UT  G6-AVG=+085,-026,-056
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,085,090;SESC:090,085,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,005/015,010,008
    KFCST=2334 5322 1223 4332  27DAY-AP=025,010   27DAY-KP=4554 3322 3243 2222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 06 AUG 93 was  47.5.
      The Full Kp Indices for 06 AUG 93 are: 2- 3o 5o 4+   3+ 3o 3- 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. There are four very
       ordinary spotted regions now visible. Region 7558 (N12E10) is
       the largest and newly assigned Region 7560 (N17E73) the most
       recent addition. Very little activity of any significance was
       reported in the past 24 hours.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.
       Substorming occurred during local nighttimes.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled through 09 august. Intervals of
       quiet conditions should end the period.

            Event probabilities 08 aug-10 aug

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 08 aug-10 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/20
                        Minor Storm           15/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/30/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Continuing occasional periods of minor signal
       degradation have been observed over the high and polar latitude
       paths during the local night sectors.  Similar, although
       gradually improving, conditions can be expected over the next
       72 hours, through 10 August inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7557  S18W04  257  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7558  N12E10  243  0230 ESO  15  018 BETA
7559  S16W28  281  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7560  N17E73  180  0010 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7555  N09W87  340                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 08 AUGUST TO 10 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 07 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 07 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
25   N40W25 N26W63 N55W73 N55W43  309  ISO   POS   024 10830A
28   S24W55 S24W55 S10W73 S10W73  312  ISO   POS   004 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


