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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 6 Aug 93 23:49:28 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 06 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 06 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 218, 08/06/93
10.7 FLUX=094.4  90-AVG=106        SSN=049      BKI=1454 3322  BAI=018
BGND-XRAY=B1.2     FLU1=8.5E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=2354 3332  PAI=019
  BOU-DEV=006,047,110,067,029,021,011,012   DEV-AVG=037 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.1   @ 0524UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.1   @ 2357UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.4
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 1840UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2230UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2115UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 0220UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55374NT @ 2120UT   BOUTF-MIN=55336NT @ 1657UT  BOUTF-AVG=55359NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+074,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+123NT@ 1530UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-071NT@ 0530UT  G6-AVG=+094,-023,-051
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,135,130;SESC:135,135,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/015,015,010
    KFCST=2334 4322 2334 4322  27DAY-AP=012,025   27DAY-KP=3224 3233 4554 3322
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 05 AUG 93 was  45.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 05 AUG 93 are: 5o 5+ 4+ 4-   3- 2o 3- 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7558 (N12E23) had the
       sole C-class flare of the day, a C1.1/SF at 0524Z.  Newly
       assigned Region 7559 (S14W15) was born on the disk.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.

            The geomagnetic field varied from quiet levels early on, to
       episodes of minor storm conditions near mid-period. Unsettled
       conditions prevail at this time.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled the next three days.

            Event probabilities 07 aug-09 aug

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 07 aug-09 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/30
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/30/30
                        Minor Storm           25/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions varied from near-normal to
       slightly below-normal.  Occasional minor signal degradation was
       observed over the high and polar latitude paths, particularly
       during the local night and morning sectors.  Otherwise,
       propagation was close to normal.  MUFs are depressed by up to
       approximately 20 percent.  A return to stabler conditions is
       expected over the next 72 hours as the current disturbance
       subsides.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7557  S16E08  258  0000 BXO  04  002 BETA
7558  N12E23  243  0220 EAO  15  014 BETA
7559  S14W15  281  0020 CRO  04  003 BETA
7555  N09W74  340                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 07 AUGUST TO 09 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 06 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 06 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
06/ 1524     1537     1610       N12E28   LDE    B2.3   46


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
25   N44W14 N14W64 N24W90 N60W44  322  ISO   POS   035 10830A
28   S28W48 S28W48 S15W66 S05W54  324  ISO   POS   006 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


