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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 05 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 5 Aug 93 23:03:29 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 05 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 05 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 217, 08/05/93
10.7 FLUX=094.3  90-AVG=106        SSN=029      BKI=4543 2221  BAI=017
BGND-XRAY=B1.3     FLU1=6.7E+05  FLU10=3.5E+04  PKI=5544 3232  PAI=024
  BOU-DEV=054,083,041,036,010,012,013,008   DEV-AVG=032 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B7.8   @ 0602UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.0   @ 2142UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.0
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1110UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2035UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1715UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2325UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55418NT @ 0033UT   BOUTF-MIN=55343NT @ 1820UT  BOUTF-AVG=55368NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+071,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+121NT@ 1748UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-153NT@ 0038UT  G6-AVG=+092,-030,-075
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,140,145;SESC:135,140,145 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,015/018,015,015
    KFCST=2334 4332 2334 4322  27DAY-AP=012,012   27DAY-KP=2332 3332 3224 3233
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 04 AUG 93 was  74.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 04 AUG 93 are: 2- 2o 3- 3o   4- 4o 3- 4+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 7558 (N13E37)
       produced the few subflares observed. The other spotted region
       visible, 7557 (S17E19), was quiet.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low.

            The geomagnetic field has been predominantly active.
       Periods of minor storm conditions early in the interval have
       given way to quiet conditions observed more recently. A narrow
       coronal hole is thought to be responsible for this modest
       disturbance.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to mildly active throughout the
       period.

            Event probabilities 06 aug-08 aug

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 06 aug-08 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/30
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/35/35
                        Minor Storm           20/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were mostly near-normal
       throughout the last 24 hours.  Periods of minor signal
       degradation were reported over the high and polar latitude
       paths due to enhanced levels of geomagnetic and auroral
       activity, although even this subsided by the end of the UT day
       as conditions quieted.  Near-normal propagation should persist
       over the next 24 to 48 hours as conditions gradually stabilize.
       Isolated sporadic minor signal degradation will persist over
       the high and polar latitude paths during the local night
       sectors for the next several days.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 05/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7557  S17E19  260  0020 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7558  N13E37  242  0230 ESO  15  008 BETA
7555  N09W61  340                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 06 AUGUST TO 08 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7546 S08   189
7549 S17   185


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 05 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 05 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 05/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


