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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 04 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 5 Aug 93 11:02:52 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 04 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 04 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 216, 08/04/93
10.7 FLUX=096.1  90-AVG=106        SSN=041      BKI=2233 3434  BAI=016
BGND-XRAY=B1.7     FLU1=2.8E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2233 4434  PAI=016
  BOU-DEV=010,016,021,029,022,052,023,042   DEV-AVG=026 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C6.4   @ 0226UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.4   @ 1816UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.1
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1710UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1820UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1655UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1420UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55388NT @ 2359UT   BOUTF-MIN=55325NT @ 1750UT  BOUTF-AVG=55358NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+074,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+153NT@ 1704UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-135NT@ 2358UT  G6-AVG=+098,-020,-048
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,140,145;SESC:135,140,145 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,015/020,020,015
    KFCST=3334 5433 2334 4332  27DAY-AP=015,012   27DAY-KP=2334 3433 2332 3332
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 03 AUG 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 03 AUG 93 are: 1o 1o 0+ 1-   1o 2- 2o 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Clouds probably prevented the
       observation of a C6.4 x-ray flare at 0225Z, the only C-class
       event of the period. Region 7558 (N12E50) remains the dominant
       feature on an otherwise dull disk. It measures 270 millionths
       in white light.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.

            The geomagnetic field varied between quiet and active levels
       over the past 24 hours. A weak disturbance began about 1600Z,
       probably associated with a western hemisphere coronal hole.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly active over the next 24 hours, then
       unsettled through the end of the interval.

            Event probabilities 05 aug-07 aug

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 05 aug-07 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/30/30
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/35/30
                        Minor Storm           20/20/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/15/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal for much of the day.
       Increased levels of solar and geophysical activity were
       responsible for destabilizing the ionosphere over the high and
       polar latitude paths late in the day.  Near-normal to slightly
       below-normal propagation is expected to dominate for the next
       48 hours (through until about 06 August), afterwhich the
       disturbance should wane.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7552  N14W86  018  0040 HAX  01  002 ALPHA
7557  S18E31  261  0020 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7558  N12E50  242  0270 ESO  15  008 BETA
7555  N09W48  340                    PLAGE
7556  N18W78  010                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 05 AUGUST TO 07 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7545 N06   194
7549 S17   184


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 04 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0838 0843 0848              B4.6        130


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 04 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


