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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 03 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 5 Aug 93 23:36:55 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 03 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 03 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 215, 08/03/93
10.7 FLUX=097.9  90-AVG=107        SSN=040      BKI=1111 1112  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=B1.9     FLU1=2.3E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=1101 1222  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=006,006,007,007,006,006,009,015   DEV-AVG=007 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.5   @ 0255UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.7   @ 0917UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.6
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2000UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2210UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1430UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 0945UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55375NT @ 1354UT   BOUTF-MIN=55342NT @ 1710UT  BOUTF-AVG=55360NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+084,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+135NT@ 1614UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-055NT@ 2048UT  G6-AVG=+105,-018,-039
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,135,135;SESC:130,135,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,020,015/010,018,025
    KFCST=2233 4333 3334 5433  27DAY-AP=008,015   27DAY-KP=3311 2232 2334 3433
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**245STRM:1107-1237UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 02 AUG 93 was  75.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 02 AUG 93 are: 3- 1o 2- 1-   1+ 2- 2- 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7558 (N12E63) is the most
       impressive of the three spotted regions visible.  Very few
       flares occurred.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to
       persist at the low level.

            The geomagnetic field has been quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active throughout the period.
       Coronal hole effects should elevate activity from the quiet
       conditions now occurring.

            Event probabilities 04 aug-06 aug

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 04 aug-06 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/35/30
                        Minor Storm           10/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/15/15

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/35/35
                        Minor Storm           15/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/15/15

            HF propagation conditions have been above normal over most
       regions today.  MUF's were enhanced by as much as 25 to 30
       percent over normal values.  Similar enhancements were also
       noted over regions yesterday, although these conditions seem to
       be more pronounced today.  These conditions are not expected to
       last, however.  Deterioration is expected over the next three
       days due to anticipated enhancements in geomagnetic and auroral
       activity from a well-placed solar coronal hole.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7552  N14W74  020  0090 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7557  S17E45  261  0040 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7558  N12E63  243  0340 ESO  14  008 BETA
7553  S12W83  029                    PLAGE
7555  N09W35  341                    PLAGE
7556  N18W65  011                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 04 AUGUST TO 06 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7545 N06   194
7549 S17   184


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 03 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 03 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


