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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 02 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 3 Aug 93 1:06:04 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 02 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 02 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 214, 08/02/93
10.7 FLUX=100.7  90-AVG=107        SSN=070      BKI=0110 0011  BAI=001
BGND-XRAY=B2.6     FLU1=1.8E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=3121 1222  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=004,005,008,004,002,004,008,006   DEV-AVG=005 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.0   @ 0957UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.3   @ 0728UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.1
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1240UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2255UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1755UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2340UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55370NT @ 1319UT   BOUTF-MIN=55334NT @ 1908UT  BOUTF-AVG=55358NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+084,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+122NT@ 1715UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-057NT@ 1831UT  G6-AVG=+105,-017,-040
 FLUXFCST=STD:120,120,120;SESC:120,120,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,020/010,015,020
    KFCST=2224 3122 2334 4333  27DAY-AP=007,008   27DAY-KP=2113 2122 3311 2232
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 01 AUG 93 was  71.8.
      The Full Kp Indices for 01 AUG 93 are: 1+ 1o 0+ 1-   2- 2o 2- 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Two C-class x-ray bursts
       were observed. Both were optically uncorrelated.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Region 7558 (N11E73) may produce C-class
       flares.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled during the first two days. Conditions
       are expected to reach active levels the third day due to
       the effects of a coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 03 aug-05 aug

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 03 aug-05 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/25/30
                        Minor Storm           05/10/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/10/15

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/30/35
                        Minor Storm           10/15/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/10/15

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar conditions should persist over the next 48 hours before
       slight deterioration over the high and polar latitude paths
       materializes due to a well-placed coronal hole on 05 August.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7552  N16W61  020  0060 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7553  S12W70  029  0010 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7555  N09W22  341  0020 CRO  03  004 BETA
7556  N18W52  011  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7557  S18E59  260  0060 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7558  N12E72  247  0100 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 03 AUGUST TO 05 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7543 S08   224
7545 N06   194


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 02 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 02 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
02/ 0854     0957     1117                LDE    C2.0  143


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


