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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 01 August
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 2 Aug 93 17:55:37 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 01 AUGUST, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 01 AUGUST, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 213, 08/01/93
10.7 FLUX=100    90-AVG=107        SSN=073      BKI=1000 0001  BAI=000
BGND-XRAY=B2.3     FLU1=4.3E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=1101 2222  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=006,004,003,003,002,004,003,006   DEV-AVG=003 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.3   @ 1816UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.8   @ 0609UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.3
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2335UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 0205UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1815UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 2310UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55375NT @ 1443UT   BOUTF-MIN=55333NT @ 1910UT  BOUTF-AVG=55360NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+086,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+135NT@ 1659UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-055NT@ 1757UT  G6-AVG=+108,-017,-039
 FLUXFCST=STD:110,120,120;SESC:110,120,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,010,015/010,010,015
    KFCST=2224 3112 2224 3122  27DAY-AP=006,007   27DAY-KP=2311 2122 2113 2122
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 31 JUL 93 was  63.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 31 JUL 93 are: 2- 3- 1o 1+   2o 2- 2o 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity low.  The only C flare during the past 24
       hours was a C1 flare at 1751UT.  This event may have originated
       from behind the east limb; surge activity was observed on the
       east limb at N15 during this period.  An H type spot, numbered
       Region 7558 (N15E89), is currently rotating on to the disk at
       this location.  Region 7557 (S17E71), a small H type spot
       group, was also numbered.  All other sunspot groups are small
       and simple.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low.  Region 7558 is the most likely source of any
       increased activity.

       STD: Intense Ca XV emissions were observed on the northeast
       limb on 31 July in conjunction with Region 7558.  The
       background x-ray flux and small-scale flare frequency is
       increasing as this group rotates into view.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past
       24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled early in the period.  The
       field is expected to become active late in the period as a
       consequence of a favorably located coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 02 aug-04 aug

                             Class M    02/03/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 02 aug-04 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                05/10/35
                        Minor Storm           05/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/30
                        Minor Storm           10/10/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar stable conditions are expected to persist over the next
       three days.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 01/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7552  N15W49  021  0080 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7553  S12W58  030  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7555  N08W10  342  0020 HRX  02  003 ALPHA
7556  N18W38  010  0020 BXO  04  004 BETA
7557  S17E72  260  0050 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7558  N13E86  246  0060 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 02 AUGUST TO 04 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7543 S08   222
7544 N03   229


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 01 AUGUST, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 01 AUGUST, 1993
---------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
01/A0115             B1631       S00W09   DSF
01/A1315             B1446       N15W12   DSF    B6.7   58
01/ 1751     1823     1902                LDE    C1.3   71


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 01/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


