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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9308171806.AA00388@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: AURORA WATCH: Warning Downgraded to a Watch - 17 August
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 17 Aug 93 12:06:02 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 140
Status: OR

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                    MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

                   WARNING DOWNGRADED: 16:00 UT, 17 AUGUST

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 18 AUGUST

MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 17 AUGUST (UT days)

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES FOR NEXT 3 DAYS: 18, 14, 12 (17 AUG - 19 AUG)
(INPUT INTO THE PREDICTIVE AURORA SOFTWARE *)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:  LOW

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE:  NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES:  POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CENTRAL ALBERTA TO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
        TO CENTRAL-SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC
        TO SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        EXTREME NORTHERN U.K. TO EXTREME NORTHERN EUROPE INCLUDING CENTRAL TO
        NORTHERN PARTS OF NORWAY, SWEDEN, AND FINLAND TO EXTREME NORTHERN
        RUSSIA.

* Contact: Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA or COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu for more information
           regarding the Auroral Activity Prediction and Simulation Software.


SYNOPSIS...

     A fairly vigorous disturbance produced impressive levels of auroral
     activity over the high and northern middle latitude regions on 16 and 17
     August.  Periods of activity were also visible from some central middle
     latitude regions near and north of the 40th parallel over the eastern
     and central United States and Canada.  Activity subsided substantially
     after 06:00 UTC on 17 August.  Although we no longer expect conditions
     to become particularly favorable for middle latitude observations of
     auroral activity, there is a slight chance some upper middle latitude
     regions might spot weak periods of activity due to sporadic weak
     residual high-latitude substorming.  Any activity seen will likely be
     diffuse or short-lived.

     This WATCH will remain active until 19:00 UT on 18 August when it will
     be allowed to expire.


**  End of Watch  **


