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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 31 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 2 Aug 93 9:27:38 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  31 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 31 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 212, 07/31/93
10.7 FLUX=096.2  90-AVG=107        SSN=066      BKI=1211 1012  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=B1.6     FLU1=7.4E+04  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2311 2222  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=008,017,007,007,005,004,006,010   DEV-AVG=008 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.2   @ 1209UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.3   @ 0209UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.6
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1650UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1910UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.6%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1425UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 0445UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55375NT @ 0051UT   BOUTF-MIN=55334NT @ 1722UT  BOUTF-AVG=55361NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+075,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+115NT@ 1503UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-059NT@ 0107UT  G6-AVG=+097,-018,-045
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,105,110;SESC:095,105,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=2223 1222 2223 2222  27DAY-AP=009,006   27DAY-KP=*333 1223 2311 2122
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 30 JUL 93 was  65.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 30 JUL 93 are: 3o 2- 1+ 1-   2o 1o 2+ 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. An uncorrelated C1.2 flare
       occurred at 31/1209UT. Regions 7552 (N14W32) and 7553 (S12W44)
       both produced minor subflares. Region 7556 (N12W25) was numbered
       today.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Region 7553 has the best C-class flare
       potential.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly quiet for the entire forecast period.

            Event probabilities 01 aug-03 aug

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 01 aug-03 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           10/10/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/20/20
                        Minor Storm           15/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Similar conditions are expected to persist over the
       next 72 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 31/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7552  N14W32  017  0080 CSO  13  011 BETA
7553  S12W44  029  0020 CAO  04  005 BETA
7555  N08E03  342  0020 HAX  01  003 ALPHA
7556  N12W25  010  0020 BXO  05  007 BETA
7554  S07W57  042                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 01 AUGUST TO 03 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7543 S08   224
7544 N03   236


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 31 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 31 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
31/ 1147     1209     1320                LDE    C1.2   93


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 31/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
23   S60W34 S60W34 S60W84 S30W64  051  ISO   POS   033 10830A
25   N40E66 N05E21 N20W04 N60E51  320  ISO   POS   041 10830A
27   S55E08 S60W24 S42W29 S15W26  006  ISO   NEG   015 10830A
28   S12E36 S20E34 S15E18 S10E21  325  ISO   POS   004 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


