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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 29 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 1 Aug 93 12:56:39 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  29 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 29 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 210, 07/29/93
10.7 FLUX=100.4  90-AVG=107        SSN=072      BKI=2123 3443  BAI=014
BGND-XRAY=B1.3     FLU1=9.5E+04  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=2123 3343  PAI=013
  BOU-DEV=011,006,014,022,037,042,052,021   DEV-AVG=025 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B2.8   @ 0103UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.1   @ 1822UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.5
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1440UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2025UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1505UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 2325UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55381NT @ 2252UT   BOUTF-MIN=55327NT @ 1944UT  BOUTF-AVG=55362NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+071,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+138NT@ 1528UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-074NT@ 2332UT  G6-AVG=+095,-018,-043
 FLUXFCST=STD:100,100,100;SESC:100,100,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/015,010,010
    KFCST=3344 1111 1122 1111  27DAY-AP=025,020   27DAY-KP=5333 4345 5442 3223
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 28 JUL 93 was  74.1.
      The Full Kp Indices for 28 JUL 93 are: 2+ 2- 2o 1o   1o 1+ 2- 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. No x-ray events were
       recorded over the past 24 hours. All regions appear stable or
       in slow decay.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Region 7553 (S12W20) has the best chance for
       a class C flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours. Active levels were observed
       after 29/1500UT in mid and high latitudes.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours then
       quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the forecast period.
       High latitude stations may observe further active levels for
       the next 24 hours.

            Event probabilities 30 jul-01 aug

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 30 jul-01 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/10/10
                        Minor Storm           15/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/10/10
                        Minor Storm           25/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over the low
       and middle latitude regions.  High latitude paths saw
       occasional minor signal degradation due to enhanced geomagnetic
       and auroral activity.  Conditions are expected to return to
       near-normal over the high latitude regions on 31 July or 01
       August.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7552  N16W07  019  0080 CSO  08  004 BETA
7553  S12W20  032  0080 DAO  08  019 BETA
7554  S07W31  043  0010 AXX  02  005 ALPHA
7555  N08E30  342  0030 CSO  04  004 BETA
7551  S11W64  076                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 30 JULY TO 01 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7542 N07   258


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 29 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 29 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
23   S49W11 S68W33 S24W56 S24W56  043  ISO   NEG   020 10830A
25   N60E87 N16E38 N24E24 N68E57  324  ISO   POS   056 10830A
27   S58E37 S58E37 S37E02 S24E09  358  ISO   NEG   018 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


