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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 28 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 1 Aug 93 11:40:19 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  28 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 28 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 209, 07/28/93
10.7 FLUX=101.5  90-AVG=107        SSN=072      BKI=2221 1112  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B1.2     FLU1=4.7E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2221 1122  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=011,011,015,005,008,006,007,011   DEV-AVG=009 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B2.9   @ 1230UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.1   @ 2045UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.4
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 1640UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1335UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1430UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2355UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55372NT @ 2359UT   BOUTF-MIN=55347NT @ 1810UT  BOUTF-AVG=55363NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+078,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+132NT@ 1624UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-061NT@ 2354UT  G6-AVG=+097,-017,-041
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,110,110;SESC:105,110,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,010/020,015,010
    KFCST=4445 4333 3444 3332  27DAY-AP=021,025   27DAY-KP=3444 4334 5333 4345
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 27 JUL 93 was  72.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 27 JUL 93 are: 2o 1o 1- 2o   2+ 3- 3+ 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low.  A single, optically
       uncorrelated B-class x-ray burst occurred. Region 7553 (S12W07)
       showed minor growth. No new regions were assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. C-class subflares are possible from Regions
       7553 and 7555 (N07E43).

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the
       past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly active during the first day due to
       coronal hole effects. Activity is expected to decline to
       mostly unsettled levels by the middle of the second day as
       effects subside.

            Event probabilities 29 jul-31 jul

                             Class M    10/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 29 jul-31 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/35/10
                        Minor Storm           15/15/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/40/10
                        Minor Storm           25/25/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/01

            HF propagation conditions continued normal over all
       regions.  The anticipated disturbance from the well placed
       coronal hole is late and less likely to arrive as previously
       thought.  Conditions should therefore continue near-normal over
       the next 72 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7548  S12W81  106  0140 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7552  N14E05  020  0090 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7553  S12W07  032  0070 DAO  08  017 BETA
7554  S10W18  043  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7555  N07E43  342  0060 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7550  S20W81  106                    PLAGE
7551  S11W51  076                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 29 JULY TO 31 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
7542 N07   258


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 28 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1847 1847 1848                          110
 1853 1855 1856                          150


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 28 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
28/A1240             B1456       N07E42   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


