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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 27 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 1 Aug 93 10:38:21 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  27 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 27 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 208, 07/27/93
10.7 FLUX=103.2  90-AVG=107        SSN=098      BKI=1002 3332  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=B1.4     FLU1=2.6E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2112 2332  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=007,002,003,013,022,027,021,019   DEV-AVG=014 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C5.9   @ 1552UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.3   @ 2359UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.9
NEUTN-MAX= +005%  @ 0835UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2355UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.9%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 2115UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1315UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55378NT @ 1311UT   BOUTF-MIN=55340NT @ 1922UT  BOUTF-AVG=55364NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+089,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+159NT@ 1310UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-053NT@ 2233UT  G6-AVG=+111,-018,-041
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,105,110;SESC:105,105,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,020,015/020,020,015
    KFCST=2333 3344 4445 4333  27DAY-AP=011,021   27DAY-KP=3232 2323 3444 4334
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=2@1547-1602UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 26 JUL 93 was  70.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 26 JUL 93 are: 2- 2+ 1- 1o   1+ 2o 1+ 1o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7555 (N07E57) produced a
       C5/1F flare at 27/1554Z. A significant Type II sweep burst and
       minor discrete frequency bursts accompanied the flare. Region
       7553 (S12E07) showed significant growth, but produced little in
       the way of flare activity.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. C-class flares may occur in Regions 7553 and 7555. There
       is also a slight chance for an M-class flare from either of
       these regions.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at unsettled to active levels due to coronal
       hole effects. Brief periods of minor storming could also occur
       during the second and third days, particularly at high
       latitudes.

            Event probabilities 28 jul-30 jul

                             Class M    20/20/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 28 jul-30 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/35/35
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/40/40
                        Minor Storm           25/25/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/10

            HF propagation conditions have been normal over the last
       24 hours.  Near-normal propagation should persist over most
       regions unless a well placed coronal hole enhances geophysical
       activity.  This could cause minor signal degradation over high
       latitude signal paths on 29 and 30 July.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7548  S12W68  106  0160 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7550  S20W68  106  0010 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7551  S11W38  076  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7552  N15E17  021  0090 HSX  02  002 ALPHA
7553  S12E07  031  0050 DSI  06  015 BETA
7554  S08W04  042  0010 BXO  06  005 BETA
7555  N07E57  341  0060 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7547  N10W86  124                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 28 JULY TO 30 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 27 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0140 0140 0140                          100
 1533 1554 1618 7555  N08E61 C5.9  1F    190 32     II


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 27 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
27/ 1547              1602       N08E61   RSP    C5.9   45  2


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
23   S32E27 S63W11 S20W39 S20W39  054  ISO   NEG   021 10830A
25   N34E87 N14E67 N17E56 N34E87  332  ISO   POS   013 10830A
26   N26W43 N20W53 N30W58 N34W49  103  ISO   NEG   002 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


