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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 26 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 31 Jul 93 21:02:55 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  26 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 26 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 207, 07/26/93
10.7 FLUX=103.6  90-AVG=107        SSN=082      BKI=1301 1111  BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=B1.3     FLU1=3.0E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=2211 1211  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=005,024,003,006,008,008,006,007   DEV-AVG=008 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B3.4   @ 2137UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.2   @ 0315UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.7
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 2150UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 0820UT  NEUTN-AVG= +1.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1610UT     PCA-MIN= -1.1DB @ 1955UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55371NT @ 1319UT   BOUTF-MIN=55347NT @ 1731UT  BOUTF-AVG=55363NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+082,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+138NT@ 1703UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-056NT@ 2000UT  G6-AVG=+105,-017,-040
 FLUXFCST=STD:100,100,105;SESC:100,100,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,020/010,020,020
    KFCST=2333 3222 2333 3344  27DAY-AP=011,011   27DAY-KP=2224 3233 3232 2323
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 25 JUL 93 was  72.6.
      The Full Kp Indices for 25 JUL 93 are: 2o 2+ 2- 1-   1+ 2+ 1o 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. A single B-class subflare
       occurred. New Regions 7554 (S07E11) and 7555 (N06E71) were
       numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the
       past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first
       day. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active
       levels for the remainder of the period due to coronal hole
       effects.

            Event probabilities 27 jul-29 jul

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 27 jul-29 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/35/35
                        Minor Storm           05/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/40/40
                        Minor Storm           05/25/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/10/10

            HF propagation conditions continued near-normal over all
       regions.  Gradual minor deterioration is expected over the next
       3 days (particularly on 28 and 29 July) in response to enhanced
       geomagnetic and auroral activity from a well-placed solar
       coronal hole.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7548  S12W54  106  0130 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7550  S20W53  105  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7551  S10W26  078  0000 AXX  01  003 ALPHA
7552  N14E30  022  0070 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7553  S13E18  034  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7554  S07E11  041  0000 AXX  02  003 ALPHA
7555  N06E71  341  0030 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7547  N09W69  121                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 27 JULY TO 29 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 26 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 2130 2136 2141 7555  N13E66 B3.4  SF    250


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 26 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
23   S40E13 S50E06 S32W23 S21W21  066  ISO   NEG   014 10830A
25   N30E87 N16E71 N20E57 N30E87  344  ISO   POS   008 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


